Deeper Analysis

Soft Euro Lifting Euroland Manufacturing at U.S. Expense

May 2, 2017

The manufacturing purchasing managers index of Euroland, 56.7, surpassed its U.S. counterpart, 54.8, in April for the first time since April. The lagged effect of the post-Trump dollar rally is a major reason why. Manufacturing is more sensitive to currency movement than non-manufacturing. Although the table below uses the ISM compilation for its U.S. component […] More

April in Figures

April 29, 2017

In April, ten-year sovereign debt yields fell a little more sharply in the United States than other economies, but the dollar was mixed, falling against the euro, sterling, and Swiss franc but not the yen. The dollar advanced solidly against commodity-sensitive currencies, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil slipped back below the $50 per barrel […] More

U.S. and Ezone Non-Manufacturing PMIs

April 5, 2017

The ISM’s non-manufacturing U.S. PMI, shown in the table below, dropped 2.4 points to 55.2 in March, and a U.S. services PMI compiled by Markit Economics declined 1.2 points to a 6-month low of 52.6. In contrast, Euroland’s PMI moved 0.5-point higher to 56.0, which is a 70-month peak. As a result, the U.S. non-manufacturing-minus-Ezone […] More

U.S. and Euroland Factory March PMIs Respectively Fell and Rose

April 3, 2017

The U.S. manufacturing PMI level exceeded its euro area counterpart for a third straight month in March. However, all but 0.2 points of a 1.5-point widening of the spread between the two indices seen in February was reversed in March. EUR/USD had similar averages in the two adjacent months. The U.S. PMI was depressed by […] More

March and First Quarter in Figures

April 1, 2017

March saw an introspective pause to the market euphoria of the first two months of 2017, but the quarter still experienced a broadly lower dollar and strong stock market gains for the most part, the Japanese Nikkei being a notable exception. Ten-year sovereign debt yields were mixed and resulted in less supportive U.S. premiums at […] More

Comment on U.S. Current Account Data

March 21, 2017

U.S. President Trump has cast great attention on the U.S. trade and current account deficits, calling such a drag on the growth of U.S. real GDP and jobs and insinuating that the deficit expanded and the jobs and GDP situations deteriorated under his predecessor’s stewardship. The facts indicate otherwise¬†otherwise. The current account deficit averaged 2.5% […] More

FOMC Preview

March 15, 2017

Over the past six weeks since the last FOMC policy announcement on February 1, the dollar has appreciated marginally more than 1.0% against the euro and yen, and the 10-year Treasury yield is advanced 9 basis points. Whereas these changes tighten monetary conditions, a 9% net decline in oil prices and a 5% rise in […] More

Mexico’s Contribution to U.S. Trade Imbalance

March 7, 2017

Merchandise trade between the United States and its southern neighbor has become a central policy priority of the Trump administration. U.S. companies have been accused of exporting jobs to Mexico where labor is cheaper. A second complaint is that Mexico allegedly engages in unfair trade practices, and a third is that income earned by legal […] More

Non-Manufacturing PMIs: U.S. and Ezone Both Improve

March 3, 2017

The non-manufacturing U.S. PMI rose 1.1 points to a 16-month high of 57.6, and Euroland’s services purchasing managers index 1.8 points to a 69-month high of 55.5. The sum of these spreads and the manufacturing PMI differential rose 0.8 points to 4.4, giving the U.S. its widest combined advantage since the middle of 2015. PMIs […] More

Widest U.S. Manufacturing Advantage Versus Euroland in Two Years

March 1, 2017

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index jumped 1.7 points in February to a 28-month high of 57.7. This faster improvement of conditions was led by new orders, up 4.7 points, and production, up 1.5 points. Inflationary pressured settled back a point but remained well above the 50 level that separates expansion […] More