Deeper Analysis

February in Figures

February 28, 2017

Equities were bid sharply higher in February, and the dollar appreciated mostly. Ten-year sovereign debt yields, which had risen during January, reversed course. Short-term interest rates were steady, and commodity prices climbed. 10-Yr Yield o2/28/17 01/31/17 Chg v End-Jan U.S. 2.38% 2.45% -7 Basis Points Germany 0.20% 0.43% -23 Japan 0.04% 0.07% -3 U.K. 1.15% […] More

FOMC Minutes

February 22, 2017

Minutes from the January 31/February 01 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee policy review revealed little information that contradict general perceptions of the current thinking and contingent intentions of policymakers. The meeting was the first after the one in December that had raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points. Donald Trump had […] More

Little Change in U.S. Non-Mfg or Euroland Service Sector PMI Readings

February 3, 2017

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index dipped 0.1 of a point to 56.5 in January as business activity and new orders grew less rapidly than in December but jobs and prices expanded at a faster pace. Euroland’s service sector PMI was unchanged at 54.4. The national readings for France, Ireland, and […] More

Bigger U.S. than Ezone Acceleration in Manufacturing Last Month

February 1, 2017

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management reported a 1.5-point increase in the manufacturing purchasing managers index to a very robust 26-month high reading of 56.0. That advance, which followed a combined 2.5-point increase in the last two months of 2016, was powered in January by gains of 3.5 points in prices, 3.3 points in jobs, and […] More

January in Figures

January 31, 2017

The slumping dollar was the fulcrum of financial market activity in January. Dollar lows for the month were hit on January 31 against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and kiwi, and the monthly highs occurred on either the third of second day of the months. From their lows to their highs, the Aussie […] More

U.S. Economic Performance of the Last Ten Presidencies

January 23, 2017

John Kennedy began America’s 35th presidency on January 20, 1961 asking citizens to “ask not what their country can do for them” but rather to “ask what they can do for their country.” Making the case for passing the torch on to a new generation, he declared, “let us never negotiate out of fear, but […] More

Inflationary Amber Alert

January 13, 2017

After the election of Donald Trump, the dollar, U.S. equities, long-term interest rates, and commodities rose initially. Some of these changes have been pared, but they reflect a changed perceived economic outlook. Analysts who follow fundamental economic trends became more optimistic about economic growth and the likelihood of higher inflation. Market players were very mindful that […] More

Strong Factory Growth Acceleration in Both Ezone and U.S.

January 3, 2017

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed 1.5 points in December to a two-year high of 54.7. Markit Economics’ U.S. factory-sector PMI told a similar story, printing at a 21-month peak of 54.3 in the final month of 2016. The euro area PMI in manufacturing, compiled by Markit Economics, rose almost […] More

December and 2016 in Figures

December 31, 2016

Although the federal funds rate was raised three fewer times in 2016 than many U.S. monetary officials were expecting a year ago, short-term interest rate differential moved significantly more in favor of U.S. assets over the course of the year. This shift was reflected in 10-year bond yield spreads between the United States and both […] More


December 22, 2016

Real economic growth in 3Q16 was revised up 0.3 percentage point to 3.5% annualized from the second quarter. However, the on-year pace of 1.7% was down from 2.2% in the year to 3Q15 and 2.9% in the year to 3Q14. Personal consumption remains a mainstay of the economy, posting successive on-year advances of 3.2% in […] More