Deeper Analysis

Dollar-Supporting U.S. Balance of Payments

June 21, 2019

The seasonally adjusted U.S. current account deficit was $13.5 billion smaller in the first quarter than in the final quarter of 2018, and it narrowed 0.3 percentage points as a percent of GDP to 2.5%. That ratio, which this century crested at 6.3% in the final quarter of 2005, hasn’t averaged 3.0% or higher in […] More

Next Week

June 14, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings at the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and in Norway, Turkey, Thailand, Taiwan, Brazil, and the Philippines. The FOMC will release updated forecasts, and Chairman Powell will preside over a press conference. Governors Carney of the Bank of England and Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia […] More

More Bad News Regarding Manufacturing

June 3, 2019

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index fell by a further 0.7 index points to a 31-month low in May. Sub-indices for production, supply delivery times, inventories and order backlogs dropped by 1.0, 2.6, 2.0 and 6.7 points. Juxtaposed against a 0.2-point decline in the IHS-compiled Euroland PMI index to 47.7, the […] More

May 2019 in Figures

June 1, 2019

The month of May exemplified the global interdependence national financial markets, and the unifying force was rising risk aversion. Whereas equities had climbed broadly in April, all the ones shown below dropped just about as sharply in May. Likewise, climbing 10-year sovereign debt yields in April were reversed last month, and except in the case […] More

Thursday-Friday Data from the U.S. and Canada

May 31, 2019

U.S. first-quarter real GDP growth was revised down a tenth of a percentage point to 3.1% at an annualized rate from the prior quarter. This was the third time in four quarters in which growth was 3.1% or stronger. Over the eleven quarters following mid-2015, real growth didn’t exceed 3.0% even once. On the other […] More

Tale of the Tape: DJIA Performance of Trump Vs Obama

May 13, 2019

With a plunge of more than 600 points so far today, the Dow Jones Industrials has fallen to its level at the start of the second week of January 2018, some 16 months ago. During the equivalent period of the Obama Presidency, the DJIA climbed 18%. Okay, the DOW is still 27.5% above its level […] More

U.S. Nonmanufacturing PMI Compared to Euroland Services PMI

May 6, 2019

In the United States in April, non-manufacturing activity grew somewhat more slowly than in March but more rapidly than the manufacturing sector was expanding. Sub-indices for orders, jobs and prices grew more slowly last month, but the growth of production quickened. April service sector activity in the euro area similarly contrasted favorably with the region’s […] More

U.S.-Minus-Euroland Advantage in Manufacturing Narrowed in April

May 2, 2019

The widening of the ISM U.S. minus euro area IHS purchasing purchasing manager manufacturing differential that had occurred in March was exactly reversed in April. The spread dropped from 7.8 points to 4.9 points, as the euro recorded its firmest monthly average against the dollar since December 2017. Manufacturing is more sensitive to movements in […] More

April in Figures

May 1, 2019

The first-quarter rebound in share prices continued in April at pretty much the same pace of climb but with British stocks lagging somewhat. Central bank interest rates were not changed during the month in the U.S., Euroland, Great Britain, Japan, or Switzerland. U.S. President Trump sustained his tweeting campaign, urging the Fed to cut rates […] More

A Strange and Unexpected U.S. GDP Report

April 26, 2019

U.S. real GDP grew 3.2% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) last quarter, which is close to a percentage point higher than was predicted. Year-on-year growth in the first quarter was also 3.2%. The acceleration of quarter-on-quarter growth to 3.2% from 2.2% SAAR did not stem from the usual suspects. Real final private domestic […] More