Deeper Analysis

August in Figures

August 31, 2019

The most discussed financial market development of August is actually not depicted in the standard month in figures table below, and that was the inversion of the U.S. yield curve, which has been a pretty reliable leading indicator of a recession beginning 18-24 months later. Between the end of July and August 30th, the U.S. […] More

Diminishing Dollar Swings Since Trump Became a Market Factor

August 21, 2019

Since emerging on the geopolitical stage as a candidate for U.S. president around mid-2015, Donald Trump has personified uncertainty in style and substance. He is a leader without equal in generating event risk for market players. There’s a lot of money to be made from making money in the market only if one had advance […] More

U.S. Manufacturing Advantage Grew Versus Euro Area During July

August 1, 2019

The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI in July slipped another half point of 51.2, which is a month short of a 3-year low. New business improved slightly, but the sub-indices fell for production, employment and prices. The slower improvement in U.S. manufacturing was outmatched by a faster deterioration in Euroland manufacturing. The IHS-compiled PMI for the […] More

July 2019 in Figures

July 31, 2019

Even though only the Fed among major central banks cut interest rates in July, long-term interest rates declined in Europe but changed hardly at all over the course of the month in the United States, Canada, or Japan. The Fed’s 25-basis point interest rate cut announced on the final day of the month was its […] More

Fed Beige Book Out of Regional U.S. Economic Conditions

July 17, 2019

The Beige Book, covering the period from mid-May to early July¬† identifies modest growth, a positive economic outlook, stable-to-diminishing price pressure, but also “widespread concerns about the possible negative impact of trade-related uncertainty.” This publication, which is prepared prior to each of the eight scheduled policy reviews by the FOMC, offers no contradicting opinions to […] More

U.S. and Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices Each Fell Last Month

July 1, 2019

The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI slipped 0.4 points in June to a 32-month low of 51.7 despite more rapid expansion in production. A pronounced slowdown in demand and a drop in prices were the driving forces. Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI, meanwhile, edged just 0.1 point lower to a 3-month low of 47.6, marking the sixth consecutive […] More

June and the Second Quarter in Figures

June 28, 2019

Although the major central banks did not change their key short-term interest rates in the second quarter, global disinflation and decelerating economic growth depressed expected inflation and fanned speculation that monetary policies will be eased later in 2019. This in turn put downward pressure on long-term interest rates but incentivized share prices to climb. President […] More

Dollar-Supporting U.S. Balance of Payments

June 21, 2019

The seasonally adjusted U.S. current account deficit was $13.5 billion smaller in the first quarter than in the final quarter of 2018, and it narrowed 0.3 percentage points as a percent of GDP to 2.5%. That ratio, which this century crested at 6.3% in the final quarter of 2005, hasn’t averaged 3.0% or higher in […] More

Next Week

June 14, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings at the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and in Norway, Turkey, Thailand, Taiwan, Brazil, and the Philippines. The FOMC will release updated forecasts, and Chairman Powell will preside over a press conference. Governors Carney of the Bank of England and Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia […] More

More Bad News Regarding Manufacturing

June 3, 2019

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index fell by a further 0.7 index points to a 31-month low in May. Sub-indices for production, supply delivery times, inventories and order backlogs dropped by 1.0, 2.6, 2.0 and 6.7 points. Juxtaposed against a 0.2-point decline in the IHS-compiled Euroland PMI index to 47.7, the […] More