Deeper Analysis

U.S. Advantage Versus Euroland Swelled Last Month in Manufacturing

July 2, 2018

A 5.3-point differential in June between theĀ ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and the IHS-compiled euro area manufacturing PMI represented the widest U.S. advantage in 43 months and was 2.1 points greater than the spread in May. The U.S. PMI score of 60.2 was at a 4-month high, while Euroland’s 55.4 reading constituted the slowest […] More

June and Second Quarter 2018 in Figures

June 29, 2018

The dominant market themes in June and 2Q were a sharp rise in the price of oil and a strengthening dollar, neither of which belongs in a recipe to accomplish President Trump’s quest to reduce the U.S. trade deficit sharply if not to zero. Dollar appreciation was particularly pronounced against the Chinese yuan. The federal […] More

FOMC Preview

June 13, 2018

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to enact its second 25-basis point increase in the federal funds target of 2018 and the seventh since December 2015. That will bring the target ceiling to 2.0% for the first time since a cut in October 2008 just four weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. […] More

Charlevoix G6 Summit Communique

June 10, 2018

Saturday’s statement from leaders of the Group of Seven had little to say about exchange rate policy and affirmed “the crucial role of a rules-based international trading system and continue to fight protectionism.” U.S. President Trump, who favors a Group of Eight including Russia as a more meaningful body than the Group of Seven, initially […] More

May PMI Results Point to Much Greater U.S. Advantage against Euro Area

June 5, 2018

The U.S. nonmanufacturing PMI, compiled by the Institute of Supply Management rose 1.8 to 58.6 in May, indicating a robust and considerably faster improvement in nonmanufacturing business conditions last month. The sales and prices indices increased by more than 2.0 points to pace the improvement. A U.S. services PMI, compiled by IHS Economics, was 2.2 […] More

Latest PMI Evidence on U.S. and Ezone Manufacturing Conditions

June 1, 2018

Even though the dollar posted its strongest monthly average in May since last November, the U.S. minus Euroland manufacturing purchasing managers indices swung 2.1 points further in favor of the United States. This created the most U.S.-advantageous differential since the end of 2014. The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. PMI rose 1.4 points to a […] More

May in Figures

May 31, 2018

The dollar rose over 3% in May against the euro and sterling and by about 1% against the yuan and Canadian dollar but slipped fractionally relative to the yen, loonie and Australian dollar. Ten-year sovereign debt yields had risen in April but declined in May. Share prices rose in the U.K., Canada and United States, […] More

Italy’s Pre-Maastricht Days

May 17, 2018

A headline in today’s Financial Times reads “Italy’s populists pine for pre-euro times.” The recently established Five Star party and the right-wing League have been trying to form a government, and they have been openly considering desired measures to modify their relationship with other members of the European Monetary Union. The Maastricht Treaty signed in […] More

Non-Manufacturing U.S.-Minus-Euroland PMI Spread

May 5, 2018

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing index-minus-euro area services PMI was cut nearly in half to +2.1 in April, a three month low. The U.S. index dropped 2.0 points to 56.8, led by reductions of 1.5 and 3.0 points in sales/business activity and employment. Euroland’s services PMI fell just 0.2 points to 54.7. The Irish and French […] More

Convergence of U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Operating Conditions Last Month

May 2, 2018

The rates of improvement in factory operating conditions slowed in April both in the United States and Euroland, but the U.S. deceleration was somewhat more pronounced. Hence, America enjoyed its smallest advantage relative to the euro area in three months. Declines of 3.8 points in the U.S. output sub-index and 3.1% in the U.S. jobs […] More

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