Deeper Analysis

Trade War Concerns Affected U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices Equally in September

October 1, 2018

In September, the ISM-Compiled factory PMI index fell 1.5 points to 61.3, while the IHS-compiled euro area PMI dropped 1.4 points to 54.6. The manufacturing sectors continued to improve, but the lower scores in each economy reflects a reduced rate of improvement in operating conditions. And America’s relative advantage was preserved, but the data do […] More

September and Third Quarter in Figures

September 29, 2018

Central bank policy rates were raised during the third quarter in the United States, U.K., and Canada but left unchanged in Japan, Switzerland and Euroland. Nevertheless, long-term interest rates climbed noticeably in all six of those economies. Thus, 10-year differentials between the U.S. and the other countries didn’t shift all that much. Moreover, the squeeze […] More

U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Conditions Diverge

September 4, 2018

August saw the widest divergence that I can recall between U.S. factory conditions as measured by the ISM purchasing managers index and factory conditions in the euro area as measured by the IHS PMI. But there is a caveat. IHS also compiles a U.S. manufacturing PMI, and according to that measure, there was a deceleration […] More

August in Figures

August 31, 2018

Many stock markets performed well in August as such had in July. Exceptions were those in the U.K., Switzerland, and Canada. The yen and Swiss franc rose against the dollar, which otherwise advanced against the other currencies examined in this monthly feature. The dollar also strengthened 33% against the Turkish lira during August. The Bank […] More

Narrower U.S. Non-Manufacturing Advantage Last Month Versus Euro Area

August 3, 2018

The July spread between the ISM non-manufacturing U.S. purchasing managers index and IHS’s service-sector PMI for the euro area was 2.4 points smaller than June’s differential. In combination with a 2.3-point contraction of their manufacturing PMI spread reported earlier this week, the sum of the two first differences was slightly more than halved to 4.5 points, […] More

U.S.-Minus-Euroland Manufacturing PMI Spread Narrowed Sharply Last Month

August 1, 2018

Mfg PMIs U.S. Euroland Spread EUR/USD Jan 2013 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.330 February 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.334 March 51.5 46.8 +4.7 1.295 April 50.0 46.7 +3.3 1.301 May 50.0 48.3 +1.7 1.299 June 52.5 48.8 +3.7 1.319 July 54.9 50.3 +4.6 1.309 August 56.3 51.4 +4.9 1.331 September 56.0 51.1 +4.9 1.335 October 56.6 51.3 […] More

July in Figures

July 31, 2018

Net dollar movement against currencies in other well-developed economies was modest in July, but the U.S. currency extended gains against developing country monies. The rise in long-term U.S. interest rates pulled up other sovereign debt yields, blunting the impact on rate differentials. The Bank of Canada was the only central bank examined for this update […] More

U.S.-Minus-Ezone Non-manufacturing PMI Differential Narrowed Last Month

July 5, 2018

The ISM U.S. nonmanufacturing PMI minus IHS Euroland services PMI narrowed 0.9 points to 3.9 in June after having widened 2.7 points in May. Both economies experienced faster growth last month in these sectors. The U.S. index climbed 0.5 points to 59.1, but Euroland’s measure went up by a larger 1.4 points to 55.2. Manufacturing […] More

U.S. Advantage Versus Euroland Swelled Last Month in Manufacturing

July 2, 2018

A 5.3-point differential in June between the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and the IHS-compiled euro area manufacturing PMI represented the widest U.S. advantage in 43 months and was 2.1 points greater than the spread in May. The U.S. PMI score of 60.2 was at a 4-month high, while Euroland’s 55.4 reading constituted the slowest […] More

June and Second Quarter 2018 in Figures

June 29, 2018

The dominant market themes in June and 2Q were a sharp rise in the price of oil and a strengthening dollar, neither of which belongs in a recipe to accomplish President Trump’s quest to reduce the U.S. trade deficit sharply if not to zero. Dollar appreciation was particularly pronounced against the Chinese yuan. The federal […] More