Deeper Analysis

U.S. Presidential Election Math

November 19, 2016

Although there have now been four different times — 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016 — when a presidential candidate has won a majority of electoral college votes without having the most straight popular votes, this year’s result produced the greatest disparity between the two votes. There are currently 538 electoral votes. The number of electoral […] More

Some Thoughts on U.S. Inflation

November 15, 2016

This note considers changing U.S. inflation over the past half century, using total consumer prices rather than core CPI or the consumer spending price deflator. For the purposes of a study covering decades, core CPI and headline CPI should in theory converge. Consumer prices were selected rather than the PCE deflator simply for easier access […] More

Sharp October Drop in U.S.-Minus-Ezone PMI Services Spread

November 7, 2016

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index fell 2.3 points to 54.8 last month. Euroland’s service sector PMI increased 0.6 points to 52.8. The differential between those two indices thus narrowed 2.9 points to +2.0. In combination with a negative 1.6-point manufacturing PMI differential, half a point more advantageous to Euroland than in the prior month, […] More

Euro Area Factory PMI Rose More Sharply than U.S. PMI in October

November 2, 2016

The U.S. manufacturing purchasing  managers index increased 0.4 points to 51.9 last month. While subindices for jobs, prices and  production climbed by 3.2, 1.5 and 1.8 points, that for new orders dropped 3.0 points. The PMI level was at a 3-month high, nonetheless. Euroland’s PMI improved 0.9 points to a 33-month high of 53.5. All […] More

October in Figures

November 1, 2016

The dollar rose in October especially versus sterling. Long-term interest rates increased everywhere, not just in the U.S. where monetary policy tightening is expected. The 10-year JGB remained below its target of zero, however. Short-term interest rates edged up marginally. Equities in October were mixed, and both the price of gold and oil slipped about […] More

Big 6.3-Point Jump Last Month in U.S.-Minus-Ezone Services Differential

October 5, 2016

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index leaped 5.7 points to 57.1 in September, an eleven-month high. Euroland’s services PMI, in contrast, fell 0.6 points to a 21-month low. The spread between those two September readings of +4.9 points was 6.3 points greater than August’s negative differential of -1.1. There is one caveat, however. Markit Economics, […] More

September Improvement of U.S. Manufacturing Exceeds Ezone’s Improvement

October 3, 2016

The U.S. manufacturing PMI reading last month of 51.5 was lower than Euroland’s score of 52.6.  It was the eleventh time in the last fourteen months that such had happened. However, the differential between the two scores was halved. After five straight readings above the 50 no change level, the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index had […] More

September and the Third Quarter in Figures

October 1, 2016

Ten-year sovereign debt yields remained very low last quarter. British gilts dropped over a half percentage point for the second consecutive quarter, helped by a halving the Bank of England’s policy interest rate and resumption of quantitative stimulus there. The dollar fell mostly last quarter, but the loss against sterling was trimmed in September. Equities […] More

FOMC Preview

September 21, 2016

Since the last FOMC statement on July 27, the dollar, share prices and the 10-year Treasury price have fallen. The Treasury yield and price of oil have climbed. Investors await the FOMC statement at 18:00 GMT today, which is to be accompanied by new forecasts and followed by a Janet Yellen press conference at 18:30 […] More

U.S. Economic Performance During Obama’s Stewardship

September 19, 2016

The first presidential candidate’s debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is a week from today. The winner of the election in November will assume the office of the U.S. presidency at noon exactly four months from tomorrow. That person’s predecessor, Barack Obama, has completed 96% of his stewardship as America’s 44th president. This update […] More