Oil
Oil Spikes and Inflation
June 10, 2008
The lead editorial in Monday’s Wall Street Journal complained that “the policy mix of easy money and rebates isn’t working,” made another plea for the Fed “to protect the dollar with deeds, not words,” and warned about “a rerun of That 70s Show of higher prices but mediocre growth.” Calling 1970’s growth mediocre is misleading […] More
U.S. Trade Deficit With OPEC Widened Further
June 10, 2008
The deficit to OPEC increased 10.5% between March and April and by 67.8% in January-April from a year earlier. The $58.5 billion trade shortfall with OPEC in the first third of 2008 was roughly the same size as the combined deficits with Europe and Japan. 55% of incremental growth in the deficit to OPEC between […] More
Rapidly Accelerating Oil Price Gains
May 20, 2008
The first forecast I ever heard that oil prices would climb above $100 was made by T. Boone Pickens when prices were only about half that high. Today’s new prediction by him that we’ll see oil at $150/barrel later this year doesn’t sound so non-sensible after seeing that earlier projection come true. Rising costs for […] More
Bubbles
May 12, 2008
My posting last Friday, Foreign Exchange Insights, opens with a discussion of recent oil price developments and observes that “it’s much easier to spot an asset bubble than to predict when it will deflate.” By coincidence, the esteemed Princeton economics professor and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman, has a self-explanatory Op-Ed piece today, […] More
Market Extremes
April 22, 2008
Greenspan said it first. He entitled his memoir, “Age of Turbulence,” and that was well before August 2007, when most markets seemingly went haywire. The euro broke above $1.60 for the first time today, just 55 days after it initially climbed above $1.50 on February 27th. The euro’s initial parity at end-1998 was $1.1720, and […] More
Do I Hear $5?
April 18, 2008
I saw my first $4+ price at the gasoline pump today. Just regular, not the high octane, and it was in a full-service line. I can think of no reason why the rise should end there. Sooner or later, higher crude oil costs are going to trickle down to gasoline. Crude oil prices have risen […] More
