Archive for September 2020

Deeper Analysis

September 2020 and Third Quarter in Figures

September 30, 2020

Third-quarter declines in the dollar were for the most part trimmed during the past month. Likewise, the dollar fell in the quarter but generally rose in September. There weren’t any central bank interest rate changes in the quarter in the countries examined here. Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell in September, while net changes between end-2Q […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Digesting the Debate and a Slew of Quarter-End Data

September 30, 2020

Last night’s U.S. presidential debate was violently repulsive and leaves an embarrassing after-taste. The dollar hasn’t reacted discernibly, however, with gains of 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc and 0.2% relative to sterling, no net change relative to the Japanese yen, and dips of 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie, Aussie dollar and yuan. There have […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

T Minus Five Weeks and Counting

September 29, 2020

The U.S. presidential and congressional elections are just five weeks away, and the first of three debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden takes place in Cleveland tonight. In the wake of Trump tax information disclosed in the New York Times, that figures to be a major discussion topic, as will be America’s unfavorable handling […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: September 26 – October 2

September 25, 2020

The coming week that bridges the third and final quarters of 2020 will be very crowded with special events, data releases, and holidays. Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in India and The Philippines. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly corporate Tankan survey will be published, and so will a summary of this month’s BOJ […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Stock Markets Looking Vulnerable

September 25, 2020

This has been a difficult week for risk-laden assets but a good one for the dollar because of its safe-haven appeal. In turn, that property of the U.S. currency is ironic, given mounting uneasiness that President Trump may not accede to a peaceful transition of power should he lose the election. Stock markets are lacking […] More

Central Bank Watch

Seventh Bank of Mexico Interest Rate Cut of 2020

September 24, 2020

The five-member Bank of Mexico Governing Board decided unanimously to cut its key interest rate to 4.25% from 4.5%. This was the seventh reduction reduction so far this year but only half the the incremental change in the the previous five adjustments but matches the size of the initial cut in February. Although Mexican GDP […] More

Deeper Analysis

2020 Recession Shared Widely

September 24, 2020

Two characteristics of the 2020 recession set it apart from all others in the last hundred years. It did not result from some kind of economic or financial market imbalance, and it constitutes the second extreme downturn in a row. Business cycle upswing do not end from old age. The expansion that began in mid-2009 […] More

Central Bank Watch

Two Percentage Point Interest Rate Hike in Turkey

September 24, 2020

Officials at the Central Bank of Turkey made the biggest splash, hiking the one-week repo rate by two full percentage points to 10.25%, which reverses over half of the 375 basis points of reduction engineered earlier this year between January and May. This directional reversal was ostensibly done in light of this quarter’s “markedly” recovering […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Nine-Week High in Trade-Weighted Dollar Despite Adverse U.S. News

September 24, 2020

The dollar rose overnight to a nine-week trade-weighted high of 94.55. The U.S. currency touched a three-month high of NOK 9.5974 against the Norwegian krone, two-month highs of 1.1633 per euro and CHF 0.9269, and 1-month highs of $0.6516 against the New Zealand dollar and ZAR 17.2230 versus the South African rand. Gold, which tends […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Firmer Tone Wednesday in Equities and the Dollar

September 23, 2020

European share prices so far today show gains of 2.1% in the U.K., 1.6% in Spain, 1.5% in France, 1.4% in Germany and 1.1% in Italy. Equities also rebounded 2.4% in Australia, 1.1% in New Zealand, and 0.7% in Singapore but dipped 0.1% in Japan whose market was closed Monday and Tuesday for holidays. U.S. […] More

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