Archive for August 2020

Deeper Analysis

August 2020 in Figures

August 31, 2020

Financial markets in August experienced significant increases in share prices and 10-year sovereign debt yields and a pronounced further decline in the dollar’s external value. Central bank policy interest rates again held steady in the U.K., U.K., Switzerland, euro area and Japan but were lowered in several developing economy countries such as Mexico by 50 […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Wide Mix of Data Reports on August’s Final Day

August 31, 2020

The dollar strengthened 0.5% against the yen, 0.3% versus the peso, and 0.2% relative to sterling but fell 0.3% against the euro and yuan, 0.2% vis-a-vis the loonie and Swiss franc, and 0.1% against the Australian dollar. British markets are shut for the late summer bank holiday. Share prices elsewhere advanced 1.1% in Japan but […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: August 29-September 4, 2020

August 28, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy review are scheduled in Chile, Australia and Ukraine. The Federal Reserve Beige Book of regional economic conditions will be published. Clarida and Brainard from the Fed, Governor Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Saunders, Haldane and Broadbent of the Bank of England speak publicly. British Holiday: U.K. markets will […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Downtrend Accelerates

August 28, 2020

Powell’s speech that formally redefined the Federal Reserve’s inflation target and policy response function implies lower U.S. interest rates for longer and gave the dollar’s pandemic-related downtrend further impetus. Overnight the dollar depreciated by 1.3% against the Mexican peso, 1.7% relative to the Australian dollar, 1.2% versus the yen and kiwi, 0.8% vis-a-vis sterling and […] More

Deeper Analysis

Comment on U.S. Presidential Election Results and Economic Growth

August 27, 2020

In this year’s bid for a second term, President Trump is taking credit for better U.S. economic growth than his predecessors were able to achieve at least over the first three years prior to the pandemic. For this note, I examined real GDP in the Trump Presidency and compared such to the first terms of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Awaiting Speeches from Central Bankers

August 27, 2020

The third night of the Republican National Convention was mostly about law and order. The event concludes today with President Trump’s key speech to the party faithful. The message of “law and order” surfaced during the President Nixon’s 1968 successful run for president and has been a basic tenet of Republican campaigns ever since. Law […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Marking Time Amid an Eclectic Assortment of Data Reports

August 26, 2020

There’s been no dominant market theme Wednesday. Investors await the virtual Jackson Hole central banker symposium that kicks off tomorrow with a widely awaited speech from Fed Chairman Powell. The RNC provided more red meat to the pro-Trump faithful on its second night. Optimism persists that the United States and China will avoid all-out trade […] More

Central Bank Watch

Hungary’s Central Bank Rate Left at 0.60%, But Officials Warn of Chance that Covid Delivers a Second Blow

August 25, 2020

There’s little remarkable in today’s Hungarian Monetary Council decision to leave its central bank base rate unchanged at 0.90%. To counter economic damage from the Covid-19 pandemic, officials engineered rate cuts of 15 basis points each at their policy reviews in June and July. Also CPI inflation rose in Hungary to 3.8% last month a […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Some Encouraging U.S.-Sino Trade News Fans Investor Sentiment Further

August 25, 2020

Equity markets had rallied strongly on Monday and then received a further lift overnight from the news that U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators reported progress and reaffirmed that the Phase I trade deal remains effective. In other overnight developments, The Republican Party National Convention kicked off with loads of fear-mongering directed at the Democratic Party […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Vaccine and Treatment Hopes Spring Eternal

August 24, 2020

Faith is trumping science in guiding market thinking regarding Covid-19. My doctor recently told me not to expect to get a coronavirus vaccine for almost another year but to be very sure to get my annual flu vaccine this autumn because the ride is apt to get bumpy then. Markets, on the other hand, are […] More

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