Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: August 1 – 7, 2020
July 31, 2020
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Brazil, the U.K., India, Australia, Thailand, Romania, and the Czech Republic. The Bank of England will publish its quarterly Inflation Report, and Governor Bailey will speak publicly on that occasion. Holidays and Special Events: Markets in Canada and India will be closed Monday for a Civic holiday, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weak Data, More Coronavirus Cases, and Concern Over Trump’s Wish to Delay November’s Election
July 31, 2020
In spite of overnight dollar gains of 0.5% against the Swiss franc, Mexican peso, and New Zealand dollar and a rise of 0.2% relative to the yen and Australian dollar, the U.S. currency suffered through July and seems likely to post its biggest trade-weighted loss in almost ten years. Compared to Thursday’s close, the dollar […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Growth in Real GDP and Jobs in the Trump Era
July 30, 2020
Real GDP contracted 32.9% at an annualized rate (AR) last quarter, more than six times faster than during the prior quarter. Personal consumption, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. aggregate demand, plunged 34.6% annualized. Non-residential and residential business investment sank by 27.0% and 38.7%, respectively, and exports and imports plummeted 64.1% and 53.4%. These […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Shocked by GDP Data
July 30, 2020
Market attention shifted from the pandemic data trends to the disease’s economic havoc. This development gave the recently weakening dollar a lift as it benefited from safe-haven demand. Overnight dollar advances range from 0.2% against the yen and Swiss franc to 0.3% versus the euro, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, loonie and Aussie dollar and […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference
July 29, 2020
The Federal Open Market Committee ended its two-day policy review and released a statement that’s almost identical to the previous announcement on June 10. Just two sentences were added as indicated below, and none were deleted: Economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below their levels at the […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
July 29, 2020
At the June 10th press conference seven weeks ago, Chairman Powell accentuated the positives, asserting that monetary policy was expansively well-positioned after numerous measures to promote flows of lending. He felt that labor markets probably hit bottom in April-May. The uncertain economic outlook would ultimately hinge considerably on the future evolution of the Covid-19 outbreak, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Much for Investors to Ponder on FOMC Day
July 29, 2020
In the seven weeks since the Federal Open Market Committee, a resurgent intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic has cast a long shadow over economic prospects in the United States and many other countries. Persistent urban protests in the United States, deepening strains between Beijing and Washington, and President Trump’s increasing desperation to redefine the election […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Pandemic Eroding Resilience
July 28, 2020
The Covid-19 pandemic keeps racking up victories against mankind’s efforts to return to a state of normalcy. U.S. deaths from the disease climbed above the 150,000 level, and the global case count advanced 4.4k in the past 24 hours to 1-2/3rds million people. A $1 trillion fiscal stimulus proposed by U.S. Senate Republicans has badly […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Falters Further and Price of Gold Blows Past its Historic High
July 27, 2020
The dollar weakened to a 22-month trade-weighted low overnight, with losses of 1.0% against the Swiss franc, 0.7% relative to sterling and the euro, 0.8% versus the peso, 0.6% vis-a-vis the yen, kiwi and Australian dollar, and 0.3% against the loonie. The Covid pandemic intensified over the weekend both globally and in the United States, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: July 27 – 31, 2020
July 24, 2020
Central Banks: The fifth scheduled meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is set for Tuesday-Wednesday and will be followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Amamiya also speaks publicly during the week, and a summary of the last BOJ meeting will get published. Holiday: The Muslim festival of Eid-al-Adha […] More
