Archive for January 2020

Deeper Analysis

January 2020 in Figures

January 31, 2020

The month of January presents another recent example of a time when key dollar pairs against the euro, yen, Swiss franc or sterling hardly moved on balance even as other financial markets underwent big changes. It was a month subjected to big distortions toward the end in the face of China’s rapidly spreading health crisis. […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: February 1-7, 2020

January 31, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in Australia, Poland, Russia, India, Thailand, Iceland, Brazil, Romania, and the Czech Republic. The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement. Masai and Wakatabe of the Bank of Japan, Wilkins of the Bank of Canada, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Governor Lowe of the Reserve […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Another Wave of Coronavirus-Related Risk Aversion to End Month of January

January 31, 2020

Near to noontime in New York, the DOW, S&P 500 and Canadian TSE indices shows losses of 1.2%, 1.1%, and 0.9% in North American trading. Earlier, stocks fell 1.9% in Indonesia, 1.4% in South Korea, 0.9% in Malaysia, and 0.5% in Hong Kong and India. China’s market continues to stay shut. In Europe, the British […] More

Deeper Analysis

Comment on U.S. GDP Last Quarter

January 30, 2020

The first estimate of U.S. real GDP growth in the final quarter of 2019 of 2.1% annualized compared to the third-quarter level matches quarterly growth last summer and marks the third straight quarter with growth at or very close to 2.0%. Fourth quarter-over-4Q growth was 2.3%. Calendar 2019 average growth equaled 2.3% as well, lowest […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank Rate Cuts in Ukraine and Sri Lanka

January 30, 2020

The National Bank of Ukraine statement stresses a strengthening currency and inflation that has dropped sharply and is now expected to hover below the 4-6% target band until late this year. The rate was cut 150 basis points to 11.0% today and previously had been reduced by 50 bps each in April, July and September […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of England Makes No Policy Change

January 30, 2020

The Bank of England’s policy rate has been 0.75% since a pair of 25-basis point hikes in November 2017 and August 2018. There were no changes made in 2019 or at this week’s first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee this week. There were dissenting votes, however, but Saunders and Haskel, who have favored a […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Coronavirus Outbreak Tops Busy List of Developments for Markets to Process

January 30, 2020

Several central banks held their first policy reviews of 2020. Those in Chile and Great Britain left their interest rate structures unchanged at 1.75% and 0.75%, respectively. The National Bank of Ukraine implemented its sixth rate cut in nine months, a 150-basis point reduction to 11.0%. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka engineered its third […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Statement and Powell News Conference

January 29, 2020

Three take-away points are to be noted about today’s FOMC statement: It was comparatively brief, using 46% fewer words than the previous meeting’s statement and revealed a unanimous decision, as expected, not to change the 1.5-1.75% federal funds target range. Today’s statement omits a lot of the forward guidance language such as the following from […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Preview

January 29, 2020

The FOMC is not expected to change interest rates. The decision will be announced at 14:00 EST and followed 30 minutes later by Chairman Powell’s press conference. Three 25-basis point rate cuts were implemented in 2019, but the dot-plot diagram of individual member rate expectations after the December FOMC meeting seven weeks ago revealed an […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Many Data Releases while Investors Monitor Coronavirus and Await FOMC Decision

January 29, 2020

China remains closed ostensibly for holiday but in reality due to the spreading coronavirus epidemic with the number of confirmed cases so far surpassing 6,000. Taiwan markets also were shut. The dollar firmed overnight by 0.3% against the kiwi, 0.2% relative to the euro, Swiss franc, loonie and Aussie dollar, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the peso […] More

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