Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: December 7-13
December 6, 2019
Central Banks: The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank head a crowded field of monetary policy reviews next week that also includes central banks in Brazil, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Peru, Serbia and the Philippines. The Fed’s Open Market Committee and ECB Governing Council will be updating their macroeconomic forecasts, and Fed Chairman Powell and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Unexpected Leap in U.S. Employment Last Month Dominates Friday’s News
December 6, 2019
U.S. non-farm payroll jobs increased 266k in November. Not since January had NFP risen so sharply, and the rises in September-October were revised upward by a combined 41k as well. Even with the resolution of the GM strike, these figures dwarfed expectations. Moreover, the jobless rate fell back 0.1 percentage point to a multi-decade low […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Busy Day on Several Fronts
December 5, 2019
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi has instructed Democratic members to draw up articles of impeachment against President Trump. Revised third-quarter GDP data for the euro area left the quarterly growth rate unchanged at 0.2%, which matches the second-quarter result. Consumption, business investment, and government spending made positive growth contributions, but net exports and inventories […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Concerns Over Trade Lessen
December 4, 2019
Zig-zagging perceptions from day to day about the likelihood of a U.S.-Sino trade deal have been a major source all year of short-term financial market volatility. The shifts often happen inexplicably, like changing weather. Today investors are more hopeful than yesterday that a deal will be reached to culminate phase I of the trade negotiations. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Fading Hopes of a U.S.-Sino Trade Deal Hammers Share Prices
December 3, 2019
Evidence keeps mounting that a near-term trade deal is slipping away. President Trump denied any deadline and hinted that a phase I agreement will not happen before next year. Angry about the U.S. congress’s resolution of support for Hong Kong protesters and perceived U.S. interference in Chinese domestic affairs on the mainland, Beijing officials reportedly […] More
Deeper Analysis
A Lessening U.S. Advantage Versus Euroland in Manufacturing
December 2, 2019
The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index in October slid 0.2 index points to a 3-month low of 48.1, whereas the Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI advanced a full point to a 3-month high of 46.9. The differential between those two data series of 1.2 points in favor of the United States was sliced in half to […] More
Deeper Analysis
November 2019 in Figures
December 2, 2019
Share prices and 10-year sovereign debt yields climbed last month in most of the economies featured below. The dollar strengthened between 0.9% and 1.9% relative to the euro, yen, Swiss franc, loonie and Australian dollar but ended November with minimal net change against the kiwi, yuan or sterling. Central bank policy rates were not changed […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Trump Plays the Tariff Card with Predictable Negative Economic Results
December 2, 2019
President Trump opened a fresh tariff offensive, this time against Brazil and Argentina which previously had been exempted from tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. He did this in response to the depreciation of those countries’ currencies and the difficulty such had exerted on U.S. farmers. But the immediate effect of his […] More
