October in Figures

October 31, 2019

The intensification of risk related to U.S.-Sino trade talks and Brexit that happened in September receded partly in October. Monthend came and went without the U.K. leaving the EU either with or without a deal, and sufficient progress in the trade talks forestalled the threat of sharp tariff increases at least for a while. Impeachment hearings against U.S. President Trump wasn’t a significant factor. The Federal Reserve enacted a third 25-basis point interest rate hike, but signaled that’s probably all the reduction for now. Monetary policy settings weren’t changed the euro area, Japan, U.K. or Switzerland.

Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose over 10 basis points in Germany, Switzerland and Canada but recorded scant net change in Japan or the United States. Solid gains  in the yen and dollar during September were reversed to varying degrees in October. Major U.S. equity market indices posted unusually diverse results. Share prices elsewhere rose strongly in Germany and Japan, but fell in Canada and the U.K.. Gold prices rose. Oil was steady on balance.

10-Yr Yield 09/30/19 10/31/19 Chg in Oct
U.S. 1.67% 1.68% +1 Basis Point
Germany -0.58% -0.41% +17
Japan -0.17% -0.15% +2
U.K. 0.48% 0.63% +15
Canada 1.36% 1.41% +5
Switzerland -0.82% -0.61% +21
CB Policy Rate 09/30/19 10/31/19 Chg in Oct
Fed funds target 1.75/2.00% 1.50/1.75% -25 Basis Points
ECB deposit rate -0.50% -0.50% 0
BOJ policy rate -0.10% -0.10% 0
BOE Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75% 0
Swiss 3M Libor -1.25/-0.25% -1.25/-0.25%0 0
FX 09/30/19 10/31/19 Pct Chg in $
EUR/USD 1.0900 1.1152 -2.3%
USD/JPY 108.10 107.99 -0.1%
USD/CHF 0.9979 0.9865 +1.1%
GBP/USD 1.2293 1.2953 -5.1%
AUD/USD 0.6750 0.6894 -2.1%
NZD/USD 0.6264 0.6413 -2.3%
USD/CAD 1.3245 1.3168 -0.6%
USD/CNY 7.1483 7.0387 -1.5%
Equities 09/30/19 10/31/19 Chg in Oct
S&P 500 2978 3034 +1.9%
Nasdaq 7999 8292 +3.7%
Djia 26917 27046 +0.4%
Dax  12428 12867 +3.5%
Nikkei 21756 22927 +5.4%
Ftse 7408 7248 -2.2%
Canada TSE 16664 16469 -1.2%
Swiss SMI 10078 10220 +1.4%
Commodities 09/30/19 10/31/19 Chg in Oct
Oil, $ per barrel 54.07 54.18 +0.2%
Gold, $ per ounce 1465.70 1511.40 +3.1%

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2019.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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