FOMC Preview
October 30, 2019
Today’s FOMC statement will be released in just under two hours. Analysts are widely looking for a third straight 25-basis point cut of the federal funds target to 1.50-1.75 percent. Six weeks ago right after the second consecutive reduction, they had been less confident than now that a cut would be agreed upon at today’s meeting. Back then, committee members had been divided over what to do with KC Fed President Esther George and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren voting to keep the target rate unchanged but St. Louis Fed President James Bullard wanting a larger 50-basis point reduction.
Many U.S. economic data reported over the past six weeks have painted a more fragile picture that the one described at the last policy review, which according to Chairman Powell and the formal FOMC statement at that time only necessitated a modest mid-course correction to guard against global growth and trade policy uncertainties. Much of Powell’s press conference on September 18 had dealt with questions about the volatile repo market. The Chairman felt then that the repo rate spike was possibly a fluky event, but Fed officials now acknowledge that the market’s functional problems are more enduring and that renewed organic growth in the central bank’s balance sheet may become necessary.
Fed officials do not seem ready to open the monetary floodgates. Over two decades have passed since the last time the fed funds rate was sliced three straight times in the context of an economic upswing. Forward guidance today may suggest a pause in policy, although this is not a meeting when Fed forecasts will be updated. The dollar and DOW now are little changed from its levels when the FOMC met in mid-September. The 10-year Treasury yields is four basis points firmer, and WTI oil has fallen somewhat more than 5%.
EUR/$ | $/JPY | 10Y, % | DJIA | Oil, $ | |
06/30/04 | 1.2173 | 109.44 | 4.63 | 10396 | 37.95 |
06/30/05 | 1.2090 | 110.89 | 3.96 | 10370 | 57.00 |
06/29/06 | 1.2527 | 116.07 | 5.20 | 11077 | 73.41 |
06/28/07 | 1.3452 | 123.17 | 5.10 | 13456 | 69.82 |
08/07/07 | 1.3749 | 118.55 | 4.73 | 13510 | 72.27 |
09/18/07 | 1.3888 | 115.75 | 4.51 | 13475 | 81.42 |
10/31/07 | 1.4458 | 115.28 | 4.42 | 13873 | 93.59 |
12/11/07 | 1.4682 | 111.49 | 4.11 | 13645 | 89.78 |
01/30/08 | 1.4792 | 107.31 | 3.70 | 12454 | 91.70 |
03/18/08 | 1.5786 | 98.73 | 3.41 | 12257 | 107.53 |
04/30/08 | 1.5562 | 104.58 | 3.83 | 12953 | 111.54 |
06/25/08 | 1.5568 | 108.37 | 4.18 | 11837 | 133.62 |
08/05/08 | 1.5445 | 108.42 | 3.97 | 11484 | 119.82 |
09/16/08 | 1.4144 | 105.16 | 3.36 | 10936 | 91.18 |
10/08/08 | 1.3625 | 99.87 | 3.50 | 9447 | 87.02 |
10/29/08 | 1.2933 | 97.15 | 3.81 | 9145 | 67.38 |
12/16/08 | 1.3790 | 90.14 | 2.52 | 8687 | 44.14 |
01/28/09 | 1.3253 | 90.01 | 2.61 | 8356 | 42.92 |
03/18/09 | 1.3115 | 98.13 | 2.94 | 7340 | 47.73 |
04/29/09 | 1.3331 | 97.06 | 3.02 | 8194 | 51.05 |
06/24/09 | 1.3984 | 95.43 | 3.59 | 8373 | 68.76 |
08/12/09 | 1.4221 | 96.17 | 3.71 | 9366 | 70.64 |
09/23/09 | 1.4779 | 91.50 | 3.50 | 9859 | 69.13 |
11/04/09 | 1.4884 | 90.75 | 3.51 | 9896 | 80.66 |
12/16/09 | 1.4542 | 89.78 | 3.56 | 10478 | 73.14 |
01/27/10 | 1.4045 | 89.49 | 3.61 | 10148 | 73.31 |
03/16/10 | 1.3756 | 90.64 | 3.67 | 10645 | 81.45 |
04/28/10 | 1.3157 | 94.10 | 3.75 | 11043 | 82.57 |
06/23/10 | 1.2284 | 90.12 | 3.13 | 10307 | 76.50 |
08/10/10 | 1.3107 | 85.85 | 2.81 | 10605 | 79.94 |
09/21/10 | 1.3132 | 85.21 | 2.66 | 10747 | 73.05 |
11/03/10 | 1.4059 | 81.35 | 2.53 | 11174 | 84.59 |
12/14/10 | 1.3423 | 83.37 | 3.38 | 11497 | 88.47 |
01/26/11 | 1.3658 | 82.55 | 3.41 | 12001 | 87.36 |
03/15/11 | 1.3969 | 81.04 | 3.29 | 11815 | 98.09 |
04/27/11 | 1.4665 | 82.63 | 3.36 | 12612 | 112.48 |
06/22/11 | 1.4392 | 80.12 | 2.97 | 12175 | 94.87 |
08/09/11 | 1.4234 | 77.09 | 2.36 | 10993 | 81.76 |
09/21/11 | 1.3778 | 76.34 | 1.93 | 11377 | 86.74 |
11/02/11 | 1.3724 | 78.11 | 2.03 | 11805 | 92.77 |
12/13/11 | 1.3067 | 77.92 | 1.98 | 12130 | 100.20 |
01/25/12 | 1.3027 | 77.96 | 1.97 | 12670 | 98.85 |
03/13/12 | 1.3096 | 82.76 | 2.08 | 13044 | 106.34 |
04/25/12 | 1.3226 | 81.37 | 1.97 | 13096 | 104.13 |
06/20/12 | 1.2693 | 79.28 | 1.66 | 12837 | 83.63 |
08/01/12 | 1.2300 | 78.10 | 1.49 | 13028 | 88.98 |
09/13/12 | 1.2895 | 77.43 | 1.72 | 13342 | 97.60 |
10/24/12 | 1.2948 | 79.75 | 1.77 | 13115 | 85.72 |
12/12/12 | 1.3082 | 83.24 | 1.70 | 13325 | 87.13 |
01/30/13 | 1.3584 | 91.16 | 2.02 | 13949 | 97.63 |
03/20/13 | 1.2948 | 95.65 | 1.94 | 14497 | 92.82 |
05/01/13 | 1.3195 | 97.48 | 1.62 | 14740 | 90.47 |
06/19/13 | 1.3364 | 95.76 | 2.23 | 15304 | 98.38 |
07/31/13 | 1.3301 | 97.92 | 2.67 | 15565 | 105.63 |
09/18/13 | 1.3363 | 98.28 | 2.76 | 15606 | 107.01 |
10/30/13 | 1.3764 | 98.18 | 2.48 | 15660 | 97.42 |
12/18/13 | 1.3696 | 103.81 | 2.89 | 16198 | 98.06 |
01/29/14 | 1.3651 | 102.13 | 2.73 | 15719 | 97.23 |
03/19/14 | 1.3918 | 101.75 | 2.71 | 16335 | 99.96 |
04/30/14 | 1.3868 | 102.11 | 2.66 | 16553 | 99.52 |
06/18/14 | 1.3584 | 101.93 | 2.61 | 16892 | 106.12 |
07/30/14 | 1.3372 | 102.84 | 2.51 | 16878 | 101.45 |
08/17/14 | 1.2961 | 107.60 | 2.57 | 17151 | 94.05 |
10/29/14 | 1.2677 | 108.40 | 2.33 | 16956 | 82.51 |
12/17/14 | 1.2409 | 117.58 | 2.11 | 17201 | 57.85 |
01/28/15 | 1.1337 | 117.77 | 1.78 | 17457 | 44.75 |
03/18/15 | 1.0637 | 120.98 | 2.05 | 17733 | 42.49 |
04/29/15 | 1.1164 | 118.67 | 2.05 | 18039 | 59.16 |
06/17/15 | 1.1255 | 124.22 | 2.39 | 17862 | 59.12 |
07/29/15 | 1.1073 | 123.61 | 2.29 | 17720 | 49.17 |
09/17/15
10/28/15 |
1.1334
1.1081 |
120.86
120.50 |
2.26
2.07 |
16778
17687 |
47.01
45.83 |
12/16/15
01/27/16 03/16/16 04/27/16 06/14/16 07/27/16 09/21/16 11/02/16 12/14/16 02/01/17 03/15/17 05/03/17 06/14/17 07/25/17 09/20/17 11/01/17 12/13/17 01/31/18 03/21/18 05/02/18 06/13/18 08/01/18 09/26/18 11/08/18 12/19/18 01/30/19 03/20/19 05/01/19 06/19/19 07/31/19 09/18/19 10/30/19
|
1.0956
1.0874 1.1089 1.1339 1.1205 1.0998 1.1160 1.1099 1.0641 1.0741 1.0638 1.0910 1.1149 1.1735 1.2010 1.1631 1.1815 1.2424 1.2271 1.1963 1.1788 1.1668 1.1765 1.1400 1.1420 1.1415 1.1355 1.1244 1.1217 1.1132 1.1066 1.1122
|
121.72
118.48 113.70 111.37 106.15 105.65 100.84 103.33 115.37 113.52 114.48 112.47 111.55 111.17 111.34 113.91 112.58 109.31 106.27 109.91 110.38 111.69 112.94 113.88 112.26 109.55 111.42 111.17 108.36 108.59 108.16 108.84
|
2.29
2.02 1.99 1.89 1.62 1.53 1.70 1.78 2.45 2.49 2.57 2.30 2.13 2.29 2.24 2.35 2.34 2.73 2.89 2.97 2.96 2.99 3.08 3.23 2.81 2.72 2.57 2.48 2.08 2.02 1.75 1.79 |
17583
16002 17217 18013 17675 18461 18151 17989 19915 19890 20885 20920 21375 21711 22376 23405 24585 26259 24839 24095 25309 25310 26543 26195 23881 24841 25727 26624 26452 27210 27048 27043 |
35.95
30.85 37.79 44.89 48.29 41.91 43.44 45.18 51.83 53.33 48.43 47.96 44.71 48.75 50.55 54.24 56.60 64.41 65.00 67.57 66.77 67.62 71.68 60.93 47.80 54.51 59.48 63.38 53.65 58.48 58.16 54.91 |
Copyright 2019, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: FOMC preview