Archive for October 30th, 2019

Central Bank Watch

Third Brazilian Rate Cut of the Cycle

October 30, 2019

The Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic Rate was cut 50 basis points to 5.0%. The decision was unanimous and followed 50-bp reductions announced July 31 and September 19. In a released statement, the policymaking committee characterized core inflation as comfortable. The Committee judges that this decision reflects its baseline scenario for prospective inflation and the […] More

Deeper Analysis

Fed’s Pause to Last Longer Than Average

October 30, 2019

Coming into today’s FOMC announcement and press conference, Fed watchers correctly coalesced around a view that the Fed would chop 25 basis points off its federal funds rate target for the third time since July 31 but at the same time signal a pause in this easing cycle. The released statement didn’t discredit that presumption. […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Statement Introduces More Ambiguity in Forward Guidance

October 30, 2019

A key sentence after the previous two rate cuts announced on July 31 and September 18th had read, “As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Canada’s Overnight Interest Rate Target Left at 1.75%

October 30, 2019

The 1.75% overnight central bank interest rate in Canada constitutes a post-Great Recession high and has been at that level since an increase in October 2018. Officials consider that rate level still appropriate and noted today a number of resilient elements in Canada’s economy related to the labor market, household income trends, and housing. But […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Preview

October 30, 2019

Today’s FOMC statement will be released in just under two hours. Analysts are widely looking for a third straight 25-basis point cut of the federal funds target to 1.50-1.75 percent. Six weeks ago right after the second consecutive reduction, they had been less confident than now that a cut would be agreed upon at today’s […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Markets Anticipating Another Fed Rate Cut

October 30, 2019

The dollar marked time overnight as investors await confirmation of further easing from the FOMC. Their expectation of a third 25-basis point reduction since July 31st of the federal funds target is thought by many to be accompanied by forward guidance indicating a predisposition to pause afterwards. The announcement at 18:00 GMT will be followed […] More

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