Archive for August 2019

Deeper Analysis

August in Figures

August 31, 2019

The most discussed financial market development of August is actually not depicted in the standard month in figures table below, and that was the inversion of the U.S. yield curve, which has been a pretty reliable leading indicator of a recession beginning 18-24 months later. Between the end of July and August 30th, the U.S. […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

August 30, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Sweden, Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Canada, and Australia. Publication of the Fed Beige Book that documents regional economic trends. Rosengren, Kashkari, Evans, Bowman, Bullard, and Williams are some of the Fed officials with planned speaking engagements. Incoming ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos and Bank of Japan Board […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Busy Session on Last Business Day of August

August 30, 2019

A heap of economic data have been released, but also the following important geopolitical developments have occurred. A Scottish judge denied a court challenge to block Prime Minister Johnson’s plan to suspend parliament for a couple of weeks and thereby prevent parliament from organizing to prevent a hard Brexit if no deal can be reached. […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Some Optimism from Three Fronts

August 29, 2019

Investors continue to believe that the U.S. and China can work out some kind of truce in the trade war. It is also thought the resignation of the Scottish Conservative Party leader, Ruth Davidson, may impede¬†British Prime Minister Johnson’s ability to pull the U.K. out of the EU without any negotiated deal on October 31. […] More

Central Bank Watch

Israeli Central Bank Interest Rate Left Unchanged but Released Statement Is Decidedly More Dovish

August 28, 2019

The Monetary Committee’s assessment is that in view of the turnaround in the inflation environment in Israel and in the monetary policies of major central banks, the slowing in the global economy, and the continued appreciation of the shekel, the interest rate will not be increased for an extended period. Moreover, if necessary, the Committee […] More

Central Bank Watch

Sedlabanki Officials Ease Monetary Policy Again

August 28, 2019

The Central Bank of Iceland’s key seven-day interest rate was cut for the fourth time in 2019, following moves in March, May, and June. The 3.50% new rate level is down 125 basis points altogether after today’s latest 25-bp adjustment. In a released statement from the Monetary Policy Council, officials said inflation expectations had eased […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Europe in the Spotlight

August 28, 2019

Tense political dramas are happening in the U.K. and Italy this Wednesday. British Prime Minister Johnson, A.K.A. Bojo, requested that Queen Elizabeth suspend parliament for five weeks. This tactic is meant to curtail the maneuvering room of opponents to a hard Brexit from passing a law preventing such. Johnson’s request creates a constitutional crisis. Sterling […] More

Central Bank Watch

Hungarian National Bank Interest Rates Left Unchanged

August 27, 2019

There was no interest rate change as anticipated at this month’s monetary policy review by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank Council. The base rate has been at 0.90% since a 15-basis point cut in May 2016. The overnight deposit rate was raised 10 basis points last march to -0.05%, reversing a similarly sized cut in September […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Continuing Confusion over Status of U.S.-Sino Trade Dispute

August 27, 2019

Monday’s mixed signals about whether there had been a weekend overture between Trump and Chinese officials to resume trade talks has not been clarified. The yuan meanwhile slid another 0.1% on net and touched an intra-day low of 7.1692 per dollar, 4.0% lower than its end-July value. Against other key currencies overnight, the dollar fell […] More

Larry's Blog

Just a Hypothetical Musing

August 26, 2019

Whether one adores President Trump or is disgusted by him, attitudes toward the man tend to be held extremely. Whether one believes him or thinks he lies most of the time, there is little middle ground. Whether or not he embraces the same visions as you, and whether you perceive him as a victim or […] More

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