Central Bank Watch
FOMC No Longer Inclined to Hike Fed Funds Rate This Year
March 20, 2019
Today’s released FOMC statement asserts that the slowdown of growth in the final quarter of 2018 persisted in the early going of 2019. Headline inflation has declined, too, and market-based measures of inflation compensation “have remained low in recent months.” The final three paragraphs of the statement are identical to the one from January 30th. […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
March 20, 2019
Over the seven weeks since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar and price of oil have strengthened. Share prices recovered additionally, but the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back 13 basis points. Forward guidance in the January 30th statement was less hawkish, deleting the previous assertion that further gradual increases in the target interest rate […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Financial Market News Cycle Headed by FOMC, Brexit, and U.S./Sino Trade Talks
March 20, 2019
Today’s FOMC announcement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) will be accompanied by updated forecasts and followed at 14:30 by Chairman Powell’s press conference. Analysts look for scaled-back growth and inflation forecasts, fewer interest rate hikes this year than indicated earlier, and a stop in quantitative tightening. British Prime Minister May is asking for a 3-month […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
More Brexit Confusion, Brighter Data, and an FOMC Meeting
March 19, 2019
The dollar stayed in neutral gear overnight, dipping 0.1% against the euro, sterling, and kiwi, holding flat relative to the yen, yuan and Swiss franc, and nudging up 0.1% vis-a-vis the Aussie dollar. Slightly bigger dollar dips occurred of 0.4% relative to the loonie and 0.2% versus the Mexican peso. Asian stock markets likewise didn’t […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Another Possibly Terrorist Shooting
March 18, 2019
As the last business week ended on Friday, investors learned of a terrorist shooting by a neo-nazi at a mosque in New Zealand that killed 50 people, and today brings news of another shooting some 11,670 miles away on a tram in The Netherlands that is also believed to be the work of a terrorist. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
March 15, 2019
Central Banks: In the week of March 18-22, monetary policy reviews are scheduled in the United States, U.K., Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines. Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of England Governor Carney, SNB President Jordan, and Kent and Bullock of the Reserve Bank of Australia speak publicly. Minutes from […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Stance Left Unchanged
March 15, 2019
The latest Bank of Japan policy review as expected left targets for the overnight interest rate (-0.1%), the 10-year JGB yield (around 0%), and other quantitative elements of that central bank’s easy stance unchanged. In a released statement, Board members did downgrade their views of global growth and Japanese exports and industrial production, observing recent […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Muted Overnight Moves in Dollar but Share Prices Up
March 15, 2019
The dollar this Ides of March is unchanged from Thursday closing levels against the yen, loonie and Swiss franc. The dollar fell 0.2% against the euro, sterling and Australian and New Zealand dollars and by 0.1% versus the yuan. Share prices rose 1.3% in China, 0.8% in Japan, and 0.6% in Hong Kong and show […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Broadly Higher as Investors Seek Clarity on Brexit Mess and U.S.-Sino Trade Talks
March 14, 2019
British MPs last night defeated a motion for allowing the U.K. to leave the EU without any Brexit deal by a vote of 321-278. Today’s vote will be a motion to extend the Article 50 deadline beyond March 29th. Prime Minister May aims to hold another vote within the week on her Brexit deal. A […] More
Larry's Blog
One Reason for Slumping Confidence in Representative Democracy
March 13, 2019
The impact of laws on people vary, and some have such sweeping consequences that they ought to meet a higher standard of acceptance before getting adopted. It’s ill-advised for simple majority votes to result in controversial changes in sovereignty or that so affect everyday life in a way that will handcuff the future ability of […] More
