December and 2017 in Figures
January 1, 2019
Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell last month, resulting in end-2017 to end-2018 declines in Germany, Switzerland, Canada and Japan but end of year to end of year increases in both the United States and Great Britain. The Fed tightened its fed funds target rate four times by a total of one full percentage point last year, including at its final policy review of the year. The Bank of England raised its Bank Rate just once. The ECB, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank did not change key interest rates in either 2018 or 2019.
Equities performed terribly in December and closed the year below end-2017 levels by over 10% in many instances by not the United States.
Roughly two-fifths of a 24.7% plunge last year in the price of West Texas Intermediate oil occurred in December. A 4.5% rise in gold last month trimmed the end-2017 to end-2018 decline to only 2.0%.
Bilateral dollar movements in December varied widely, but among the currency relationships examined in this monthly feature, only the yen ended 2018 above its end-2017 level. During 2018, the dollar traded as strongly as 1.1217 per euro and JPY 114.55 and as weakly as $1.2557 and JPY 104.63.
| 10-Yr Yield | 12/31/18 | Change in Dec | 2018 Change |
| U.S. | 2.68% | -32 Basis Points | +28 Basis Points |
| Germany | 0.24% | -7 | -18 |
| Japan | -0.01% | -9 | -5 |
| U.K. | 1.27% | -9 | +9 |
| Canada | 1.96% | -31 | -8 |
| Switzerland | -0.31% | -16 | -10 |
| CB Policy Rate | 12/31/18 | Change in Dec | 2018 Change |
| Fed funds target | 2.25/2.50% | +25 Basis Points | +100 Bps |
| ECB deposit rate | -0.40% | 0 | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | 0 | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 0.75% | 0 | +25 |
| Swiss 3M Libor | -1.25/-0.25% | 0 | 0 |
| FX | 12/31/18 | Pct Chg in $ | Pct Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1445 | -1.1% | +4.9% |
| USD/JPY | 109.59 | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9838 | -1.5% | +0.9% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2740 | 0.0% | +0.9% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7043 | +3.7% | +10.8% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6706 | +2.9% | +5.7% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3639 | +5.5% | +8.7% |
| USD/CNY | 6.8785 | -1.2% | +5.7% |
| Equities | 12/31/18 | Change in Dec | 2018 Change |
| S&P 500 | 2507 | -9.1% | -6.2% |
| Nasdaq | 6635 | -9.5% | -3.9% |
| Djia | 23327 | -8.7% | -5.6% |
| Dax | 10559 | -6.2% | -18.3% |
| Nikkei | 20015 | -10.5% | -12.1% |
| Ftse | 6728 | -3.6% | -12.5% |
| Canada TSE | 14323 | -5.8% | -11.6% |
| Swiss SMI | 8429 | –6.7% | -10.2% |
| Commodities | 12/31/18 | Change in Dec | Ch v End-2018 |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 45.51 | -10.2% | -24.7% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1282.60 | +4.5% | -2.0% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2019. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: bond yields, central bank rate changes, Dollar, gold and oil, stock market performances
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