Archive for November 2018

Deeper Analysis

November in Figures

November 30, 2018

Share prices were highly volatile in November, closing higher in the U.S., Japan and Canada but lower in Great Britain and the euro area. Ten-year sovereign debt yields declined in all the economies examined in this monthly feature. None of the central bank rates among these economies changed key interest rates. Among developing economies, however, […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Korea Hikes Base Rate to 1.75%

November 30, 2018

The Bank of Korea‘s benchmark interest rate has been raised by 25 basis points to 1.75%. This was the second such¬† increase of the cycle following an initial tightening in November 2017, which had been the first hike since 2011. In between, there were five 25-basis point cuts from March 2014 to June 2016. A […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Investors Watching G20 Summit and Examining Today’s Load of Data

November 30, 2018

The dollar rose 0.7% against the euro overnight but just 0.1% relative to the yen and sterling. Stocks dropped 1.6% in Australia and 0.8% in Indonesia and South Korea but climbed 0.8% in China, 0.5% in Hong Kong and 0.4% in Japan. Share prices in Europe are down 1.0% in the U.K. and 0.3% in […] More

Central Bank Watch

Comments on the FOMC Minutes from November 7-8

November 29, 2018

FOMC minutes released today suggest a lesser shift in Fed policy intentions that markets perhaps assumed after yesterday’s speech by Chairman Powell. His remark regarding the federal funds rate perhaps now only being slightly lower than rate neutrality is ascribed in these minutes to just a few committee participants. A few participants, while viewing further […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Mixed U.S. Data, Lots of Other Data, and Ever-present Worries about The Mueller Investigation and U.S.-Sino Trade Strains

November 29, 2018

U.S. personal income rose 0.5% last month, a 7-month high. Personal consumption expenditures went up even more robustly, 0.6%, and the core PCE price deflator measure of U.S. inflation settled back 0.1 percentage point to 1.8%. On the other hand, U.S. pending home sales sank 2.6% to a near four-year low and recorded an on-year […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Awaiting Jay Powell’s Speech

November 28, 2018

Fed Chairman Powell delivers a speech before the economic club of NY later today. Such is attracting even¬† more interest than might be expected because President Trump has just escalated his criticism of Powell, calling him a bigger problem than China. In other news today, U.S. GDP growth last quarter was confirmed at 3.5%, the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Softer U.S. Consumer Confidence and House Price Inflation

November 27, 2018

The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman, who was sworn in just two months ago, endorsed the policy of gradual interest rate increases. Richard Clarida conceded that the federal funds target is getting closer to neutrality but said that more hikes are warranted. Clarida’s comments today were juxtaposed against U.S. and other data indicating slower global growth. […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Israel Raises Key Interest Rate

November 26, 2018

The Bank of Israel‘s key interest rate was changed for the first time since a 15-basis point cut in February 2015. That reduction was reversed today, but officials characterize the new stance as still accommodative. The rate is only 0.25% and was 3.25% at the end of 2010. In justifying today’s 15-basis point rate hike, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Share Prices Bounce Higher despite Geopolitical Tensions

November 26, 2018

U.S. equities rebounded over 1.0% in initial trading this Monday after a very poor performance last week. There were solid stock gains in Asia and Europe, too. EU leaders agreed to a tentative Brexit deal over the weekend, but the pact needs to be approved by the British and European parliaments. That accomplishment remains very […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

November 24, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in South Korea and Israel. Publication of FOMC minutes from meeting on November 8. Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly during the coming week include Chairman Powell, Vice Chair Clarida, and district presidents Bostic, George, Evans and Williams. Also making public comments will be Draghi, Praet, Coeure, Nowatny, and Mersch of […] More

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