U.S.-Minus-Euroland Manufacturing PMI Spread Narrowed Sharply Last Month

August 1, 2018

Mfg PMIs U.S. Euroland Spread EUR/USD
Jan 2013 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.330
February 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.334
March 51.5 46.8 +4.7 1.295
April 50.0 46.7 +3.3 1.301
May 50.0 48.3 +1.7 1.299
June 52.5 48.8 +3.7 1.319
July 54.9 50.3 +4.6 1.309
August 56.3 51.4 +4.9 1.331
September 56.0 51.1 +4.9 1.335
October 56.6 51.3 +5.3 1.364
November 57.0 51.6 +5.4 1.349
December 56.5 52.7 +3.8 1.370
Jan 2014 51.3 54.0 -2.7 1.361
February 54.3 53.2 +1.1 1.366
March 54.4 53.0 +1.4 1.380
April 55.3 53.4 +1.9 1.380
May 55.6 52.2 +3.4 1.374
June 55.7 51.8 +3.9 1.360
July 56.4 51.8 +4.6 1.354
August 58.1 50.7 +7.4 1.332
September 56.1 50.3 +5.8 1.290
October 57.9 50.6 +7.3 1.268
November 57.6 50.1 +7.5 1.247
December 55.1 50.6 +4.5 1.232
Jan 2015 53.5 51.0 +2.5 1.162
February 53.3 51.0 +2.3 1.135
March 52.3 52.2 +0.1 1.083
April 51.6 52.0 -0.4 1.081
May 53.1 52.2 +0.9 1.116
June 53.1 52.5 +0.6 1.123
July 51.9 52.4 -0.5 1.101
August

September

October

51.0

50.0

49.4

52.3

52.0

52.3

-1.3

-2.0

-2.9

1.114

1.123

1.121

November

December

Jan 2016

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2017

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2018

February

March

April

May

June

July

48.4

48.0

48.2

49.7

51.7

50.7

51.0

52.8

52.8

49.4

51.7

52.0

53.5

54.5

56.0

57.6

56.8

55.3

55.5

56.7

56.5

59.3

60.2

58.5

58.2

59.3

59.1

60.8

59.3

57.3

58.7

60.2

58.1

52.8

53.2

52.3

51.2

51.6

51.7

51.5

52.8

52.0

51.7

52.6

53.5

53.7

54.9

55.2

55.4

56.2

56.7

57.0

57.4

56.6

57.4

58.1

58.5

60.1

60.6

59.6

58.6

56.6

56.2

55.5

54.9

55.1

 

-4.4

-4.8

-4.1

-1.5

+0.1

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

+0.8

-2.3

-0.9

-1.5

-0.2

-0.4

+0.8

+2.2

+0.6

-1.4

-1.5

-0.7

-0.1

+1.9

+2.1

0.0

-1.9

-1.3

-0.5

+2.2

+2.7

+1.1

+3.2

+5.3

+3.0

1.076

1.090

1.087

1.111

1.114

1.134

1.130

1.124

1.106

1.120

1.121

1.103

1.078

1.054

1.063

1.064

1.069

1.072

1.106

1.124

1.153

1.182

1.191

1.176

1.174

1.184

1.220

1.234

1.234

1.227

1.181

1.167

1.169

 

The differential between the U.S. ISM-compiled purchasing managers index and Euroland’s IHS-compiled manufacturing PMI narrowed 2.3 points in July to a 3-month low of 3.0 points. There was little change in the monthly average of the EUR/USD exchange rate.

The U.S. PMI fell 2.1 points to a still robust 58.1 reading last month. There were even larger drops of 3.8 points in the production sub-index and of 3.3 points in new business.

The PMI readings of 55.1, 56.8, and 52.3 for Euroland, Austria, and France are 2-month highs. But PMI scores last month for Italy of 51.5, The Netherlands of 58.0, and Spain of 52.9 constitute 21-, 14- and 11-month lows, and both Germany’s 56.9 and Ireland’s 56.3 reading are at 2-month lows. The Greek PMI of 53.5 was unchanged from its June score. A common theme in these reports was the uncertainty posed by President’s threat of tariffs and other geopolitical risks.

Copyright 2018, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

 

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