Archive for August 1st, 2018

Central Bank Watch

Brazilian and Indian Monetary Policy Decisions

August 1, 2018

Central Banks in two of the four BRIC economies held monetary policy reviews. Coincidentally, while the Brazilian Selic rate was left unchanged at 6.50%, the Indian repo rate was lifted 25 basis points to rest also at 6.50%. Previously, the Selic rate was lowered sharply by 50 basis points in 2016, 675 bps last year […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged, Upgrades GDP and Personal Consumption Assessments

August 1, 2018

Today’s statement sets the stage for a likely eighth interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in September. Assessments of overall growth and the key consumption component of demand were each upgraded to “strong.” Policy continues to be characterized as accommodative and thereby supportive of “strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Preview

August 1, 2018

The federal funds target in the current campaign of rate normalization has undergone seven 25-basis point increases, their dates being December 2015, December 2016, March, June and December of 2017, March 2018 and, most recently, on June 13th at its previous meeting. Today’s announcement at 14:00 EDT will not be accompanied by new forecasts nor […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S.-Minus-Euroland Manufacturing PMI Spread Narrowed Sharply Last Month

August 1, 2018

Mfg PMIs U.S. Euroland Spread EUR/USD Jan 2013 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.330 February 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.334 March 51.5 46.8 +4.7 1.295 April 50.0 46.7 +3.3 1.301 May 50.0 48.3 +1.7 1.299 June 52.5 48.8 +3.7 1.319 July 54.9 50.3 +4.6 1.309 August 56.3 51.4 +4.9 1.331 September 56.0 51.1 +4.9 1.335 October 56.6 51.3 […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Assessing July Factory PMIs and Awaiting FOMC Statement

August 1, 2018

A parade of more than twenty purchasing manufacturing indices released today showed weaker July than June conditions by a ratio of five to one. Today’s FOMC decision is neither expected to entail an interest rate change nor any back-down of resolve following President Trump’s criticism that the Fed has been too quick to raise interest […] More

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