Archive for July 2018

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Turkish Lira Slumps while Global Equities Perform Better

July 24, 2018

Turkey’s sharp monetary tightening in May and June was unexpectedly not extended further this month, and the lira fell as much as 4% today. Turkish bond prices also fell sharply. Turkey’s 14-year CPI inflation high of 15.4% is still cresting. In yet another state under authoritarian rule, Hungary’s central bank also left monetary policy unchanged […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

The Trump Factor Strengthens Dollar but Depresses Global Stocks This Monday

July 23, 2018

Today’s menu of market-moving factors has been short on data but long on Trump pot stirring. The U.S. president over the weekend Questioned the Fed policy of rate normalization. Presidential criticisms of monetary policy are infrequent because such can often backfire, but precedents do exist. Bush41 criticized Fed tightening in 1989-90 and later blamed Greenspan […] More

Larry's Blog

Yanks May Be Hunting for a Pitcher via Trade But Such Acquisitions Tend to Be Hit or Miss

July 20, 2018

A theme in the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry this year is that the Yankees, who have an abundance of talented position players in the minors, will acquire a top gun pitcher to fortify their suspect starting rotation before the end-of-July deadline for non-waiver player trades. Such moves carry two risks. First, the Yankees have a checkered […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

July 20, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank (followed by ECB President Draghi’s press conference) and in Turkey, Hungary, Colombia, Chile and Russia. St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks publicly. Events: OPEC oil ministers meeting and a meeting of Euroland finance ministers. Scheduled U.S. Statistical Releases: 2Q GDP, existing home sales, new home sales, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Trump’s Latest Comment on Tariffs Stirs Up Fresh Market Anxiety

July 20, 2018

Stocks had performed decently in the Pacific Rim, rising overnight by 2.1% in China, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.4% in Australia and 0.9% in Taiwan. The Japanese Nikkei had been an exception, drifting down 0.3%. In an interview with CNBC, President Trump signaled a willingness to impose tariffs on China equal to the sum of […] More

Larry's Blog

Yankees and Red Sox Next Opponents Both Have Poor Pre-All Star Game Records

July 19, 2018

Pitching match-ups in the three upcoming Yankee games and three up coming Red Sox games cast possible further light on some of the points made in my earlier posts on this Eastern Division Rivalry. The Yankees will be facing their cross-town National League representative, the New York Mets, who have a record of 39 wins […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Vulnerable Time for Emerging Market Currencies

July 19, 2018

The combination of a tightening Federal Reserve policy, escalating tariff warfare, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty can be particularly risky for the currencies of developing and emerging economies. They tend to be heavily dependent on trade as an engine of economic growth and reliant upon inflows of foreign capital to cover current account deficits. Also, the […] More

Central Bank Watch

South African Reserve Bank

July 19, 2018

While many central banks in emerging economies have been tilting policy in a more restrictive direction, the last two South African interest rate changes were cuts. Reduction of 25 basis points each last March and in July 2017 had followed a period from June 2014 to March 2016 when six increases had raised the SARB […] More

Central Bank Watch

Indonesia’s 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate Left Unchanged at 5.25%

July 19, 2018

The Board of Governors at Bank Indonesia took a pause after having hike its interest rate three times in the space of six weeks. This had lifted the key 7-day reverse repo rate to 5.25% as of June 29th from 4.25% prior to an initial hike of 25 bps on May 17. There was also […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Stronger Dollar, Weaker Equities, Softer Gold Price But Rebound in Oil

July 19, 2018

The dollar climbed overnight by 0.8% to a one-year high against the Chinese yuan. The greenback also gained 1.0% relative to the kiwi, 0.9% vis-a-vis the peso, 0.8% versus the Australian dollar, 0.6% against sterling, 0.5% versus the loonie and 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc. Dollar/yen is unchanged. Stocks dropped 0.9% in Hong […] More

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