Central Bank Watch
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Cash Rate Remains 1.75%
March 22, 2018
Seven consecutive cuts in the Official Cash Rate between June 2015 and November 2016 halved such to 1.75%, and a statement following the latest policy review opines that the stance is likely to remain accommodative “for a considerable period” longer. Partly because of weather, economic growth last quarter was slower than expected, but central bank […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Trade War Fear Takes Center Stage
March 22, 2018
While Fed Chairman Jay Powell downplayed the risk to growth from trade restraints at least insofar as any influence on U.S. monetary policy is concerned, global financial markets are taking the danger of a trade war very seriously, particularly as President Trump seems poised to slap $50 billion of tariffs on imported Chinese goods. There’s […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Brazil Extends Declining Rate Cycle
March 21, 2018
The Brazilian Selic rate was reduced by an additional 25 basis points to 6.50%, extending its cumulative drop to 775 basis points during the last year and a half. Inflation is below 3% and the target midpoint of 4.5%. The monetary policy committee, Copom, released a statement expressing satisfaction with Brazil’s recovery, the global environment, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
U.S. Balance of Payments and the Dollar
March 21, 2018
The dollar did not perform as weakly in the fourth quarter as it did earlier in 2017. Between end-2016 and end-2017, the U.S. currency lost 12.3% against the euro, 8.7% relative to the pound, 7.6% versus the Aussie dollar, 6.5% versus the loonie, 6.3% vis-a-vis the yuan, 4.3% against the Swiss franc, and 2.0% versus […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Review
March 21, 2018
As expected and revealed in a published statement and new economic projections, the Fed implemented a sixth 25-basis increase in its federal funds target range to 1.50-1.75% and upgraded its forecasts GDP growth in 2018 and 2019, the labor market over the coming three years, and the core PCE inflation index for 2019 and 2020. […] More
Deeper Analysis
FOMC Preview
March 21, 2018
Although government offices in Washington have been closed today due to a winter storm, the FOMC is meeting and will release a statement and updated macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts at 18:00 GMT (14:00 EDT) followed 30 minutes later by an hour-long press conference, the first of Jay Powell’s stewardship as Chairman. A 25-basis point […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Colombia
March 21, 2018
Colombia’s monetary policy interest rate was left unchanged at 4.5%. It had been reduced by 25 basis points this past January and before that by 25 bps in December 2016, February 2017, March 2017, May 2017, July 2017, August 2017, October 2017, and November 2017, as well as by 50 basis points last April and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Wednesday to be Dominated by FOMC Statement, Forecasts, and Press Conference
March 21, 2018
Ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC event, the dollar traded lower overnight, falling 0.5% against sterling and the loonie, 0.3% versus the euro, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc and yen and 0.1% vis-a-vis the peso, yuan and kiwi. Investors also await the release of the U.S. fourth-quarter current account figures and latest monthly existing home […] More
Central Bank Watch
Chilean Policy Rate Left at 2.5%
March 20, 2018
The Central Bank of Chile’s Board voted unanimously to keep its 2.5% monetary policy interest rate. It reached that level in May 2017 after the last of four 25-basis point cuts that year. A statement released after the policy review observed two somewhat offsetting developments. On the one hand, the economy grew a little faster […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Deepening Trade War Concerns
March 20, 2018
The Fed’s two-day policy review starts today. The first post-meeting press conference of the Jay Powell era and a likely 25-basis point interest rate hike are tomorrow, and investors are anxious to see if there is a signal that four increases this year are more likely than two or three. But all this has been overshadowed […] More
