Archive for January 2018

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

January 19, 2018

World Economic Forum: Annual conference in Davos, Switzerland, bringing together leaders of business, politics and academia. This year’s theme is “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World.” The WEF begins Tuesday and runs through the end of the week. Central Banks: Both the Bank of Japan and European Central Banks will be holding policy […] More

Central Bank Watch

South African Reserve Bank Repo Rate Kept at 6.75%

January 19, 2018

The main South African central bank interest rate was reduced 25 basis points six months ago to its current 6.75% level. This move represented a directional shift. Six prior increases from June 2014 until March 2016 had raised the rate from 5.0% to 7.0%. The result of this week’s first policy review of 2018 was […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

U.S. Federal Government Shutdown at Midnight Still Possible

January 19, 2018

Talks to avert a U.S. fiscal shutdown at the end of today have degenerated into a 3-way circus. House Republicans passed a short-term fix that excludes DACA but enhances CHIP child support. President Trump’s tweets endorse the CHIP enticement only as part of a long-term solution and continue to insist on funding for the Mexican […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

January 18, 2018

Turkish central bank interest rates were not changed at the latest policy review. The one-week repo rate has been at 8.0% since a 50-basis point increase in November 2016. And the 9.25-7.25% overnight lending/borrowing rate corridor has existing since the lending rate was raised a year ago by 75 bps to 9.25%. Turkey is getting […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank Indonesia

January 18, 2018

Indonesia’s seven-day repo rate of 4.25% since last September was again left unchanged. A released statement observes a more resilient domestic economy, including a sounder current account, low inflation supported by positive supply and demand factors and no major external pressures, ample capital inflows, a stable currency, and record reserves.  The key central bank interest rate […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Korea

January 18, 2018

South Korea’s central bank interest rate had been at 1.25% from June 2016 until late November of 2017 following five 25-basis point cuts in the space of 2-1/4 years. At the end of November, monetary authorities enacted their first increase since 2011, raising the rate by 25 bps to 1.5%. In doing so, the Bank […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Down Marginally Even as 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 10-Month High

January 18, 2018

Released Chinese data were close to expectations. Real GDP grew 1.6% on quarter in 4Q, least in three quarters, but an on-year advance of 6.8% matched the 3Q result. Real economic growth in 2017 of 6.9% exceeded 2016’s 6.7% pace, marking the first calendar year acceleration since 10.6% in 2010 after 9.4% in 2009. Property […] More

Deeper Analysis

Fed Beige Book Review

January 17, 2018

The Federal Reserve today released findings from its latest survey of regional economic conditions, known as the Beige Book.  It does this about two weeks prior to each of the eight scheduled FOMC meetings of the year. The latest report covers the period from roughly Thanksgiving to endyear. Economic growth was characterized a moderate in […] More

Central Bank Watch

Canada’s Third 25-Basis Point Central Bank Rate Hike in Six Months

January 17, 2018

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Council raised the overnight interest rate target to 1.25% from 1.0% today, following similar moves last September and July. A released statement revised upward projected GDP growth in 2018 and 2019 by 0.1 percentage point each to 2.2% and 1.6%. Growth has been led by domestic demand, whereas exports […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Pause in the Action

January 17, 2018

Stocks show a calmer, healthier tone overnight following Tuesday’s roller-coaster ride that saw the DOW initially soar over 200 points and break above 26K to 26,086 but ultimately crash to a 10-point loss on the day. Share prices eased just 0.5% in Australia, 0.4% in Japan, 0.3% in South Korea and Singapore but firm 0.2% in […] More

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