Manufacturing growth in the U.S. Accelerated More Rapidly in September than its Euro Area Counterpart
October 2, 2017
A grinding appreciation of the euro has been correlated with an improving trend in U.S. manufacturing relative to its Euroland counterpart. The euro last month averaged $1.1905, the strongest monthly mean since December 2014. Not coincidentally, the U.S.-minus-Euroland factory PMI differential of +2.7 in September was higher than any month since December 2014.
The Institute of Supply Management reported a 2.0-point increase in the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index to a 13-year high of 60.8. The increase in the overall index last month was led by a gigantic 9.5-point spike in the prices component to 71.5 and a 4.3-point advance in orders. Production rose by 1.2 points, but jobs only climbed 0.4 points.
Euroland’s manufacturing PMI, compiled by IHS Markit Economics also strengthened, rising 0.7 points to a 79-month high of 56.9. Member country PMI readings in September ranged from 52.8 in Greece to 60.6 in Germany. The Greek score was a 111-month high, and the German, Dutch, and French readings were at their highest levels in 77, 79 and 77 months, respectfully. Italy’s reading of 56.3 was the same as August’s 78-month high. The Austrian and Irish readings conveyed robustly positive growth, too, but not quite as fast as in August.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | 1.366 |
| March | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | 1.380 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | 1.380 |
| May | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | 1.374 |
| June | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | 1.360 |
| July | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | 1.354 |
| August | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 1.332 |
| September | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | 1.290 |
| October | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | 1.268 |
| November | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | 1.247 |
| December | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | 1.232 |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | 1.162 |
| February | 53.3 | 51.0 | +2.3 | 1.135 |
| March | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | 1.083 |
| April | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | 1.081 |
| May | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | 1.116 |
| June | 53.1 | 52.5 | +0.6 | 1.123 |
| July | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | 1.101 |
| August
September October |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
1.114
1.123 1.121 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August September |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.7 57.2 54.8 54.9 57.8 56.3 58.8 60.8 |
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1
|
-4.4
-4.8 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.3 +1.0 -1.9 -2.1 +0.4 -0.3 +1.4 +2.7 |
1.076
1.090 1.087 1.111 1.114 1.134 1.130 1.124 1.106 1.120 1.121 1.103 1.078 1.054 1.063 1.064 1.069 1.072 1.106 1.124 1.153 1.182 1.191
|
Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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