The U.S. Enjoyed a Bigger Growth Advantage in June than May

July 6, 2017

It was already reported earlier this week by the Institute of Supply Management that the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index leaped 2.9 points to a 32-month high of 57.8 in June. This eclipsed a 0.4-point rise in Euroland’s comparable PMI to 57.4.

Now comes word that the non-manufacturing U.S. PMI increased 0.5 points to a 2-month high of 57.4, whereas Euroland’s services PMI, which is compiled by Markit Economics (ME), dropped 0.9 points to a reading of 55.4 in June. This was the lowest score since January. ME also calculates a services PMI for the U.S. economy, and that index rose 0.6 points in June to a 5-month high of 54.2.

Improvement in the U.S. non-manufacturing was powered by a 2.8-point rise in the orders component. Declines of 1.4 points in Germany’s services PMI and 1.5 points in Italy were responsible for most to the 0.9-point slide in Euroland’s services PMI. The sum of the PMI manufacturing and services differentials, shown below in the rightmost column, swung from -1.5 to +2.4 in June, and this implies the greatest U.S. advantage versus Euroland’s economy since February.

PMIs U.S. Ezone U.S. Ezone Sum of
NonMfg Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 54.8 47.9 +8.1 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +13.3
March 54.5 46.4 +8.1 51.5 46.8 +4.7 +12.8
April 53.8 47.0 +6.8 50.0 46.7 +3.3 +10.1
May 54.0 47.2 +6.8 50.0 48.3 +1.7 +8.5
June 53.4 48.3 +5.1 52.5 48.8 +3.7 +8.8
July 55.9 49.8 +6.1 54.9 50.3 +4.6 +10.7
August 57.9 50.7 +7.2 56.3 51.4 +4.9 +12.1
Sept 54.5 52.2 +2.3 56.0 51.1 +4.9 +7.2
October 55.1 51.6 +3.5 56.6 51.3 +5.3 +8.8
November 54.1 51.2 +2.9 57.0 51.6 +5.4 +8.3
December 53.0 51.0 +2.0 56.5 52.7 +3.8 +5.8
Jan 2014 54.0 51.6 +2.4 51.3 54.0 -2.7 -0.3
February 52.5 52.6 -0.1 54.3 53.2 +1.1 +1.0
March 53.7 52.1 +1.6 54.4 53.0 +1.4 +3.0
April 55.3 53.1 +2.2 55.3 53.4 +1.9 +4.1
May 56.1 53.2 +2.9 55.6 52.2 +3.4 +6.3
June 56.3 52.8 +3.5 55.7 51.8 +3.9 +7.4
July 57.9 54.2 +3.7 56.4 51.8 +4.6 +8.3
August 58.6 53.1 +5.5 58.1 50.7 +7.4 +12.9
Sept 58.1 52.4 +5.7 56.1 50.3 +5.8 +11.5
October 56.9 52.1 +4.8 57.9 50.6 +7.3 +12.1
November 58.8 51.1 +7.7 57.6 50.1 +7.5 +15.2
December 56.5 51.6 +4.9 55.1 50.6 +4.5 +9.4
Jan 2015 56.7 52.7 +4.0 53.5 51.0 +2.5 +6.5
February 57.1 53.7 +4.4 52.3 51.0 +1.3 +5.7
March 56.9 54.2 +2.7 52.3 52.2 +0.1 +2.8
April 57.5 54.1 +3.4 51.6 52.0 -0.4 +3.0
May 55.9 53.8 +2.1 53.1 52.2 +0.9 +3.0
June 56.2 54.4 +1.8 53.1 53.1 0.0 +1.8
July 59.6 54.0 +5.6 51.9 52.4 -0.5 +5.1
August

Sept

October

58.3

56.7

58.3

54.4

53.7

54.1

+3.9

+3.0

+4.2

51.0

50.0

49.4

52.3

52.0

52.3

-1.3

-2.0

-2.9

+2.6

+1.0

+1.3

November

December

Jan 2016

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Jan 2017

February

March

April

May

June

56.6

55.8

53.5

54.3

54.9

55.7

53.6

56.1

54.9

51.7

56.6

54.6

56.2

56.6

56.5

57.6

55.2

57.5

56.9

57.4

54.2

54.2

53.6

53.3

53.1

53.1

53.3

52.8

52.9

52.8

52.2

52.8

53.9

54.4

53.7

55.5

56.0

56.4

56.3

55.4

 

+1.7

+1.6

-0.1

+1.0

+1.8

+2.6

+0.3

+3.3

+2.0

-1.1

+4.4

+1.8

+2.3

+2.2

+2.8

+2.1

-0.8

+1.1

+0.6

+2.0

48.4

48.0

48.2

49.7

51.7

50.7

51.0

52.8

52.8

49.4

51.7

52.0

53.5

54.5

56.0

57.7

57.2

54.8

54.9

57.8

52.8

53.2

52.3

51.2

51.6

51.7

51.5

52.8

52.0

51.7

52.6

53.5

53.7

54.9

55.2

55.4

56.2

56.7

57.0

57.4

-4.4

-5.2

-4.1

-1.5

+0.1

-1.0

-0.5

+0.0

+0.8

-2.3

-0.9

-1.5

-0.2

-0.4

+0.8

+2.3

+1.0

-1.9

-2.1

+0.4

-2.7

-3.6

-4.2

-1.4

+1.5

+1.6

-0.9

+3.7

+3.4

-3.7

+4.0

+0.5

+3.1

+1.8

+3.6

+4.4

+0.2

-0.8

-1.5

+2.4

Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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