Big Day for Data, Dollar and Stocks Mixed
June 30, 2017
It’s the end of the month, end of the quarter, middle of the year and the eve of a long U.S. holiday weekend. That means a flood of data are getting released. For many organizations, its the end of a fiscal year.
Stocks fell in the Pacific Rim but are recovering in Europe. Share prices closed down 1.7% in Australia, 1.2% in New Zealand, 1.0% in Singapore, 0.9% in Japan, 0.6% in Hong Kong, 0.2% in South Korea and 0.3% in Taiwan. Equities in Europe have risen 0.7% in Greece, 0.6% in France, 0.5% in Switzerland and 0.3% in the U.K., Germany, Spain and Italy.
The dollar fell 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.2% versus the loonie and 0.1% relative to the yen and yuan but has also risen 0.2% against the Swiss franc and sterling and by 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro. The peso is unchanged.
WTI oil climbed another 0.8% to $45.27 per barrel and shows a 5.3% advance for the week so far. Comex gold is 0.1% lower at $1,244.20 per ounce.
Ten-year German bund and British gilt yields slipped a basis point, whereas the 10-year Japanese JGB yield is 3 basis points higher.
Released Japanese data revealed
- An as-expected 3.3% drop in industrial production in May following a 4% advance in April. Underlying trend remains upward.
- Core CPI inflation ticked up to 0.4% but posted an unchanged month-on-month move for a fourth consecutive month in May.
- Real household spending increased 0.7% on month in May but dipped 0.1% on year. Real disposable income was 2.2% lower than a year before.
- Motor vehicle production in May was 5.5% greater than a year earlier after posting a 16.3% on-year jump in April.
- The jobless rate in May jumped 0.3 percentage points to 3.1%, most so far in 2017. Employment recorded a 1.2% rise from a year earlier, the same increase as in April, and the job offers:seekers ratio edged up.
- Housing starts and construction orders recorded respective on-year drops of 0.3% and 0.5% in May.
German data reports showed
- A 0.5% increase in retail sales volume in May. April-May together averaged 0.9% more than the first-quarter mean, and May was 4.8% above its year-earlier level.
- The jobless rate stayed at 5.7% in June, the number of unemployed workers unexpectedly rose 7K, their first increase of 2017. Employment continued to show on-year growth of 1.5%.
French statistics released today indicated
- A dip in CPI inflation to 0.7% in June from 0.8% in May.
- A 0.5% monthly drop in producer prices, leaving the PPI 2.3% higher in May than a year earlier.
- A greater-than-forecast 1.0% increase in consumer spending, which also recorded a 1.9% on-year advance.
British data released this Friday revealed
- A GBP 16.895 billion current account deficit in the first quarter. That’s 40% bigger than the prior quarter’s deficit, 34% smaller than the deficit in the first quarter of 2016, and equal to 3.4% of U.K. nominal GDP.
- GDP expanded just 0.2% in the first quarter as earlier had been revealed and was 2.0% higher than a year earlier.
- Service sector activity in February-April was 0.2% higher than in the prior three months.
- Consumer confidence weakened five points to a reading of negative 10 in June, its worst score since July 2016, that is right after the stunning Brexit vote.
The government-authorized manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing manager indices in China unexpectedly rose to 51.7 and 54.9 in June.
Switzerland’s index of leading economic indicators according to KOF rose more than forecast to a reading of 105.5 in June from 102.0 in May but still trailed levels seen in March and April.
Consumer price inflation in Euroland dipped 0.1 percentage point to 1.3% in June. However, core inflation rose 0.2 percentage points (ppts) to 1.1%, and service sector inflation increased 0.3 ppts to 1.6%. These results will likely keep rising speculation that a turning point in ECB policy is coming.
New Zealand building permits climbed 7.0% last month. Australian and South African M3 money expanded by 5.0% and 6.0% in the year to May.
Scheduled U.S. data releases today feature personal income and spending (including the PCE total and core price deflators). The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index and Chicago purchasing managers index will also arrive.
Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.