Deeper Analysis
FOMC Minutes
February 22, 2017
Minutes from the January 31/February 01 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee policy review revealed little information that contradict general perceptions of the current thinking and contingent intentions of policymakers. The meeting was the first after the one in December that had raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points. Donald Trump had […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Euro Dips Briefly Below $1.05
February 22, 2017
Concerns that European nationalism may break the EU apart caused the euro to dip to an overnight and 6-week low of $1.0493 and 10-year sovereign debt yields to fall five basis points in The Netherlands, 4 bps in Germany, 3 bps in France, Italy and Britain. Equity markets in Continental Europe are down 1.0% in […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Some Factors to Consider When Handicapping Dollar’s Outlook
February 21, 2017
Fake News that is likely to become even more prevalent will present many challenges to currency forecasters. Even if the U.S. press and the intelligence community try to stand their ground, the executive branch of government enjoys great advantages in creating doubt and confusion in the public’s mind over what to believe. The two watchdogs are […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Fed Policy Still a Huge Influence on Dollar
February 21, 2017
The dollar appreciated broadly after the three-day U.S. holiday weekend despite ongoing worries about U.S. policies and strong preliminary February purchasing manager survey results for Euroland and Japan. The prime dollar mover came from remarks by Philadelphia Fed President Harker that a rate increase is possible as soon as the FOMC’s March meeting. Dollar overnight gains […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
North American Holidays Dull Activity
February 20, 2017
The U.S. and Canada are closed for Presidents Day and Family Day. The dollar fell overseas by 0.4% against sterling. Britain’s House of Lords will be discussing whether to amend how Article 50, which will govern the Brexit process, is to be triggered. The dollar climbed half a percent against the rand. South African Finance […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
February 17, 2017
Central Bank Activity: Interest rate policy meetings scheduled in South Korea, Brazil and Colombia. Minutes from prior policy meetings to be released by the Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia. The Cleveland, Philadelphia and Atlanta Fed presidents (Mester, Harker, and Lockhart) speak publicly as does the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe. February 20th […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Commodities, Bond Yields, Stocks and Sterling Lower
February 17, 2017
The dollar gained 0.5% against sterling, which was depressed by a poor report on British retail sales. The greenback also rose 0.4% versus the kiwi, 0.3% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar, 0.2% relative to the euro, Swiss franc, yuan, and peso. But it lost 0.4% against the Japanese yen. Prices for copper and other industrial metals […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Indonesia
February 16, 2017
The BI Board kept its seven-day reverse repo rate at 4.75%. It was cut last year six times between January and October, each time by a quarter percentage point. A statement released today projects 5.0-5.4% growth in 2017, an improved balance of payments last quarter and in-target inflation (3-5%) during the forecast horizon. Indonesia has […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets React to ECB Minutes
February 16, 2017
Published minutes from the last ECB meeting (known as the ECB Account) allayed concerns that the recent spike in inflation to around the central bank’s target would not lead to an abandonment of the current easy stance. The rise of headline inflation was caused by energy and shows no visible sign of indirect or second […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Dollar Uptrend Back on Track
February 15, 2017
The dollar is back in the saddle. After a strong performance last autumn, the dollar hit a speed bump in January but experienced solid demand in the first half of this month. Against both the euro and yen, the U.S. currency posted gains in each month of last quarter. So far in February, it has recovered […] More
