Central Bank Watch
Magyar Nemzeti Bank
January 24, 2017
Hungary’s central bank base rate has been at 0.90% since a third consecutive monthly cut 0f 15 basis points administered last May. Officials voted at this month’s meeting not to change the rate. While discussing circumstances that might warrant a further easing in the future through unconventional means, a released statement makes no asymmetric hint […] More
Central Bank Watch
South African Reserve Bank Meeting
January 24, 2017
The repo rate was left unchanged at 7.0% by unanimous vote and as expected. Such had previously raised in six moves from January 2014 through March 2016 from a base of 5.0%. A statement released after the latest meeting is guarded in tone, nonetheless. Projected inflation in the short term has been revised somewhat higher […] More
Central Bank Watch
A 75-Basis Point Hike in Turkey’s Overnight Lending Rate
January 24, 2017
Officials at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey project only moderate growth consistent, under ordinary conditions, with declining inflation. But because of domestic political uncertainty and global geopolitical strains that have weighed on the currencies of many emerging markets, the lira fell quite significantly. The lagged upward effect of such on Turkish inflation […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets Trading on Policy Perceptions, Not Released Data
January 24, 2017
The nominee for U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, gave a nuanced view on dollar strength, saying such is a desired long-term goal but also can be detrimental to the economy in the short run. As promised, U.S. President Trump nixed U.S. participation in the Pacific Trade Pact (TPP). Other Asian nations led by China will […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Israel
January 23, 2017
Israel’s monetary committee retained a minimal key interest rate, which has been at 0.1% since a 15-basis point reduction in nearly two years ago in late February 2015. The central bank’s statement explaining today’s decision not to change the rate notes that CPI inflation averaged minus 0.2% in 2016 and observes that “risks to achieving […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Economic Performance of the Last Ten Presidencies
January 23, 2017
John Kennedy began America’s 35th presidency on January 20, 1961 asking citizens to “ask not what their country can do for them” but rather to “ask what they can do for their country.” Making the case for passing the torch on to a new generation, he declared, “let us never negotiate out of fear, but […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Fearful Market as Trump Gets Down to Business
January 23, 2017
The dollar traded down 1.3% against the peso, 0.8% against the yuan, 0.8% relative to the yen, 0.6% vis-a-vis sterling, 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus the euro, Swissie and loonie, and by 0.2% against the Australian currency. President Trump last week insinuated that the dollar is too strong, but his Treasury Secretary appointee favors […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
January 20, 2017
Holidays: On Thursday India Republic Day and Australia Day. Chinese New Year begins late Friday, affecting China, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. Central Banks: Monetary Policies in South Africa, Israel, Ukraine, Hungary and Turkey. ECB President Draghi and Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler speak publicly. Scheduled U.S. Statistical Releases: GDP, durable goods […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
China Releases a Whole Lot of Data as World Awaits Trump’s Inauguration
January 20, 2017
At 17:00 GMT (noon EST), Donald J. Trump will officially become the 45th president of the United States. The dollar rose overnight by 0.6% against the New Zealand dollar, 0.4% versus the loonie, 0.3% relative to the Aussie dollar, yen and sterling, 0.2% vis-a-vis the euro and peson, and 0.1% against the yuan and Swiss […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Chile Cuts Interest Rate
January 19, 2017
A 25-basis point reduction to 3.25% was the first change in Chile’s monetary policy rate since a 25-basis point hike way back in December 2015. The move follows an unexpected deceleration of CPI inflation to 2.7% last month from 2.9% in November. Chilean growth has been soft, and that’s no longer confined to the resource […] More
