January in Figures
January 31, 2017
The slumping dollar was the fulcrum of financial market activity in January. Dollar lows for the month were hit on January 31 against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and kiwi, and the monthly highs occurred on either the third of second day of the months. From their lows to their highs, the Aussie and New Zealand dollar leaped 6.8% against their U.S. counterpart. The yen, Swissie, and Euro climbed 5.8%, 4.8% and 4.6%, respectively. The currency war dimension of President Trump’s economic policy has begun. In this beggar-thy-neighbor matrix, it will be a race to the bottom for currencies.
Gold, which does well when the dollar looks vulnerable and had previously dropped 1.9% during December, advance 5.6% over the course of January. That was almost as much as the 7.6% end-2015 to end-2016 appreciation. West Texas Intermediate crude oil had leaped 9.3% in December and 41.4% in all of 2016 but fell 1.6% during January 2017.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields increased during January but by widely varying amounts. The 10-year German bund, for instance, climbed 23 basis points on net, but the comparable U.S. Treasury yield only edged up a basis point. The stock markets monitored in the table below mostly recorded only small net changes. The Nasdaq was a notable out-performer.
| 10-Yr Yield | 12/30/16 | 01/31/17 | Chg v End-Dec |
| U.S. | 2.44% | 2.45% | +1 Basis Point |
| Germany | 0.20% | 0.43% | +23 |
| Japan | 0.04% | 0.07% | +7 |
| U.K. | 1.23% | 1.41% | +18 |
| Canada | 1.71% | 1.75% | +4 |
| Switzerland | -0.26% | -0.13% | +13 |
| 3-month rates | 12/30/16 | 01/31/17 | Chg vs End-Dec |
| U.S. | 1.00% | 1.03% | +3 Basis Points |
| Euroland | -0.34% | -0.35% | -1 |
| Japan | -0.03% | -0.01% | +2 |
| U.K. | 0.37% | 0.36% | -1 |
| Swiss | -0.73% | -0.73% | 0 |
| FX | 12/30/16 | 01/31/17 | % Chg in USD |
| EUR/USD | 1.0525 | 1.0796 | -2.5% |
| USD/JPY | 116.87 | 112.88 | -3.4% |
| USD/CHF | 1.0183 | 0.9895 | -2.8% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2328 | 1.2582 | -2.0% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7216 | 0.7585 | -4.9% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6947 | 0.7337 | -5.3% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3429 | 1.3012 | -3.1% |
| USD/CNY | 6.9450 | 6.8840 | -0.9% |
| Equities | 12/30/16 | 01/31/17 | Chg v End-Dec |
| S&P 500 | 2236 | 2277 | +1.8% |
| Nasdaq | 5383 | 5615 | +4.3% |
| Djia | 19764 | 19864 | +0.5% |
| Dax | 11481 | 11535 | +0.5% |
| Nikkei | 19114 | 19041 | -0.4% |
| Ftse | 7143 | 7099 | -0.6% |
| Canada TSE | 15297 | 15393 | +0.6% |
| Swiss SMI | 8220 | 8292 | +0.9% |
| Commodities | 12/30/16 | 01/31/16 | Chg v End-Dec |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 53.72 | 52.81 | -1.7% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1150.00 | 1208.60 | +5.1% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2017. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: bond yields, commodities, foreign exchange, stocks
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