Archive for November 2016

Central Bank Watch

Hungary’s Magyar Nemzeti Bank Latest Policy Decisions

November 22, 2016

The monthly Monetary Council meeting in November result in decisions to leave the central bank Base Rate and deposit rate flat at 0.90% and -0.05%, respectively, and to cut the overnight collateralized lending rate by 15 basis points to 0.90% and the one-week collateralized lending rate 10 bps to 0.90% as well. The Base Rate […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Markets Glad All Over

November 22, 2016

Commodities continued to rally strongly overnight. West Texas Intermediate crude oil leaped another 3.9% to $47.49 and is up 9.3% in the past five business sessions. Precious metals and industrial metals are broadly higher. Gold rose 0.6% to $1,217.10 per ounce. Silver and copper climbed even more steeply. Equities advanced in the Pacific Rim by […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Down, Commodities and Stocks Up, Fillon Wins

November 21, 2016

The rebound of oil was extended on reports of an improved chance that OPEC ministers will agree to cutting output at the scheduled meeting in Vienna at the end of this month. A 1.9% increase to $46.56 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude helped rally commodity prices in general. Gold at $1,215.60 per ounce […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. Presidential Election Math

November 19, 2016

Although there have now been four different times — 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016 — when a presidential candidate has won a majority of electoral college votes without having the most straight popular votes, this year’s result produced the greatest disparity between the two votes. There are currently 538 electoral votes. The number of electoral […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

November 18, 2016

Holidays: Labor Thanksgiving in Japan on Wednesday followed by U.S. Thanksgiving on Thursday and Black Friday, which is the year’s biggest retail shopping day, the day after. Central Bank Activity: Monetary policy meetings in Turkey, South Africa, Malaysia, Hungary and Colombia. Release of FOMC minutes. Powell of the Fed, Kent of the Reserve Bank of […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Mexico Overnight Interest Rate Raised a Fifth Time Since December 2015

November 18, 2016

Yesterday’s increase, like the previous three undertaken in February, June and September of this year, was by 50 basis points and lifts Mexico’s key central bank rate to 5.25%, highest since the first half of 2009. There was an initial 25-bp increase last December. The rate had ended 2008 at 8.25% but was at 4.5% […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Super Dollar at the Expense of Bonds, Commodities and Now Even Stocks

November 18, 2016

The dollar hit overnight highs of JPY 110.94 and 1.0581 per euro.┬áThe dollar climbed 0.9% against the loonie, 0.4% relative to the Australian currency, and 0.2% versus sterling. The dollar advanced 0.4% against the Mexican peso in spite of another 50-basis point increase in the Bank of Mexico’s overnight interest rate to 5.25%. That rate […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank Indonesia Officials Strike Note of Caution

November 17, 2016

Earlier in 2016, the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors had sanctioned 25-basis point interest rate cuts in each month of the first quarter plus June, September and October. Coming into this month’s meeting the rate stood at 4.75%, still well above inflation and amid continuing shrinkage of Indonesia’s current account deficit. Nonetheless, officials opted for […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Markets Wonder What Yellen Will Say Today

November 17, 2016

Thursday is being dominated by Fed Chair Yellen’s morning testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. It will be her first remarks since Donald Trump was elected president on an agenda of more stimulative fiscal policy. She will not doubt be asked how such might affect the trajectory of central bank interest rates. Other […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of Iceland

November 16, 2016

Officials at Sedlabanki had cut the 7-day repo rate by 50 basis points in August. This was a trend reversal following three increases totaling 125 bps between June and November of 2015. Many analysts were expecting a second rate reduction this month and inflation has been under target for almost three years in Iceland and […] More

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