U.S. Swings Dominate Recent Volatility in Service Sector PMI Spread
August 3, 2016
A see-saw pattern in the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI since April has caused the spread between such and the eurozone services purchasing managers index to exhibit trendless volatility. The differential equaled +2.6 in both April and July. But in between, the spread was -0.4 in April by +3.7 points in May. With above-50 readings in July of 55.5 and 52.9, respectively, conditions in the service sector improved in both the United States and Euroland.
The U.S. PMI fell a full 1.0 point from June to July due mainly to a 1.3-point deterioration in the jobs component. But it remained above 50 and above Euroland’s score, implying a faster improvement in the States.
All four reporting members of the eurozone had service sector PMIs of at least 50, although in France’s case the margin of improvement was minuscule with a reading of 50.3. The fastest expansion rate belonged to Germany followed by Spain. But Spain’s PMI was at a 5-month low of 54.1.
| PMIs | U.S. | Ezone | U.S. | Ezone | Sum of | ||
| Services | Services | Spread | Mf’g | Mf’g | Spread | Spreads | |
| Jan 2012 | 56.8 | 50.4 | +6.4 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | +10.9 |
| Feb | 56.1 | 48.8 | +7.3 | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | +10.2 |
| March | 55.0 | 49.2 | +5.8 | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | +11.4 |
| April | 53.7 | 46.9 | +6.8 | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | +15.0 |
| May | 54.1 | 46.7 | +7.4 | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | +14.8 |
| June | 52.7 | 47.1 | +5.6 | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | +10.7 |
| July | 52.9 | 47.9 | +5.0 | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | +11.5 |
| August | 54.3 | 47.2 | +7.1 | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | +12.7 |
| Sept | 55.2 | 46.1 | +9.1 | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | +14.6 |
| October | 54.8 | 46.0 | +8.8 | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | +15.1 |
| November | 54.8 | 46.7 | +8.1 | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | +11.8 |
| December | 55.7 | 47.8 | +7.9 | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | +12.0 |
| Jan 2013 | 55.2 | 48.6 | +6.6 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +11.8 |
| February | 54.8 | 47.9 | +8.1 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +13.3 |
| March | 54.5 | 46.4 | +8.1 | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | +12.8 |
| April | 53.8 | 47.0 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | +10.1 |
| May | 54.0 | 47.2 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | +8.5 |
| June | 53.4 | 48.3 | +5.1 | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | +8.8 |
| July | 55.9 | 49.8 | +6.1 | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | +10.7 |
| August | 57.9 | 50.7 | +7.2 | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | +12.1 |
| Sept | 54.5 | 52.2 | +2.3 | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | +7.2 |
| October | 55.1 | 51.6 | +3.5 | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | +8.8 |
| November | 54.1 | 51.2 | +2.9 | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | +8.3 |
| December | 53.0 | 51.0 | +2.0 | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | +5.8 |
| Jan 2014 | 54.0 | 51.6 | +2.4 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| February | 52.5 | 52.6 | -0.1 | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| March | 53.7 | 52.1 | +1.6 | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | +3.0 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.1 | +2.2 | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | +4.1 |
| May | 56.1 | 53.2 | +2.9 | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | +6.3 |
| June | 56.3 | 52.8 | +3.5 | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | +7.4 |
| July | 57.9 | 54.2 | +3.7 | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | +8.3 |
| August | 58.6 | 53.1 | +5.5 | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | +12.9 |
| Sept | 58.1 | 52.4 | +5.7 | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | +11.5 |
| October | 56.9 | 52.1 | +4.8 | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | +12.1 |
| November | 58.8 | 51.1 | +7.7 | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | +15.2 |
| December | 56.5 | 51.6 | +4.9 | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | +9.4 |
| Jan 2015 | 56.7 | 52.7 | +4.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | +6.5 |
| February | 57.1 | 53.7 | +4.4 | 52.3 | 51.0 | +1.3 | +5.7 |
| March | 56.9 | 54.2 | +2.7 | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | +2.8 |
| April | 57.5 | 54.1 | +3.4 | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | +3.0 |
| May | 55.9 | 53.8 | +2.1 | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | +3.0 |
| June | 56.2 | 54.4 | +1.8 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 0.0 | +1.8 |
| July | 59.6 | 54.0 | +5.6 | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | +5.1 |
| August
Sept October |
58.3
56.7 58.3 |
54.4
53.7 54.1 |
+3.9
+3.0 +4.2 |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
+2.6
+1.0 +1.3 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July |
56.6
55.8 53.5 53.4 54.5 55.7 52.9 56.5 55.5 |
54.2
54.2 53.6 53.3 53.1 53.1 53.3 52.8 52.9 |
+1.7
+1.6 -0.1 +0.1 +1.4 +2.6 -0.4 +3.7 +2.6 |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.5 51.8 50.8 51.3 53.2 52.6 |
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 |
-4.4
-5.2 -4.1 -1.7 +0.2 -0.9 -0.2 +0.4 +0.6 |
-2.7
-3.6 -4.2 -1.6 +1.6 +1.7 -0.6 +4.1 +3.2 |
Copyright 2016, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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