U.S.-Minus-Euroland Factory PMI Spread Swings Back into the Red
May 2, 2016
For eight straight months through February, Euroland’s manufacturing purchasing managers index as compiled by Markit Economics had exceeded the ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI reading. The string was snapped in March but resumed in April, as the PMI differential swung from +0.2 to -0.9 points.
The U.S. purchasing managers index in manufacturing fell last month by a full point to 50.8, and the deterioration would have been greater if not for a 7.5-point jump in the sub-component for prices, which printed at 59.0 in April. Orders fell by 2.5 points. Output dropped 1.1 points, and jobs remained below the 50 no-change mark although not as strongly so as in March.
Euroland’s PMI in April was 51.7, 0.1 above its March level. Factory PMI readings in April were 1.1, 0.9, 0.4 and 0.1 points higher than their March levels in Germany, The Netherlands, Italy and Spain. But the French PMI of 48.0 was not only the only one below 50 but also down by an alarming 1.6 points from the prior month and at a 12-month low.
The dollar on average was 1.8% weaker in April than in March against the euro at 1.134 but around 5.0% stronger than its mean a year earlier in April 2015.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | 1.366 |
| March | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | 1.380 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | 1.380 |
| May | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | 1.374 |
| June | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | 1.360 |
| July | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | 1.354 |
| August | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 1.332 |
| September | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | 1.290 |
| October | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | 1.268 |
| November | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | 1.247 |
| December | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | 1.232 |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | 1.162 |
| February | 53.3 | 51.0 | +2.3 | 1.135 |
| March | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | 1.083 |
| April | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | 1.081 |
| May | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | 1.116 |
| June | 53.1 | 52.5 | +0.6 | 1.123 |
| July | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | 1.101 |
| August
September October |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
1.114
1.123 1.121 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April
|
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.5 51.8 50.8 |
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7
|
-4.4
-4.8 -4.1 -1.7 +0.2 -0.9 |
1.076
1.090 1.087 1.111 1.114 1.134 |
Tags: Manufacturing PMIs
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