Archive for April 27th, 2016

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of Brazil

April 27, 2016

The Brazilian Selic rate was retained at 14.25%.  It’s been at that level since a 50-basis point hike at the end of last July, which culminated 325 basis points of increases since October 2014.  The tightening was prompted by a huge inflation overshoot relative to the 4.5% target, fueled by real depreciation.  Although inflation has […] More

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of New Zealand: No Changes

April 27, 2016

New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate was left at 2.25%, and a released statement said the kiwi remains overvalued, inflation is low, and that “further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range.”  The OCR was sliced by 25 basis points at the last meeting […] More

Deeper Analysis

An Equivocal FOMC Statement

April 27, 2016

Today’s statement from the Federal Open Market Committee neither shuts out the possibility of an interest rate hike at the June 14-15 meeting nor builds an overwhelming case for acting then unless something vastly unforeseen were to happen.  This was a two-handed explanation. On the one hand, committee members are less worried about external risks […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Preview

April 27, 2016

Six weeks have passed since the March16 FOMC statement and ensuing press conference.  My review of those events can be seen here.  Since the statement’s release, the dollar has fallen 2.0% against the euro and 2.2% relative to the yen.  The 10-year Treasury yield is declined ten basis points on balance, while the Dow Jones […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

FOMC Day and an Australian Data Surprise

April 27, 2016

The Federal Open Market Committee will release a statement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) on the results of its third policy meeting of 2016.  The federal funds rate is not expected to change, and attention will be focused on comments regarding U.S. economic conditions and likely prospects for clues to the timing of the next […] More

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