Unsettled Day

November 24, 2015

Turkey claims to have downed a Russian warplane.

Investors now attach nearly a 3-in-4 probability to the Fed funds rate being raised in December, according to market indicators.

The euro is trading in the mid-1.06s to the dollar, and the yen is hovering around 122.5.

Stock prices are lower in Europe.  German, British and Italian indices each down somewhat more than 1.0%.  The Japanese Nikkei closed up 0.2%.

Commodity prices are higher.  WTI oil gained 0.8%, and Comex gold has risen 0.5%.

Ten-year British and German sovereign debt yields are lower.

German GDP in 3Q was confirmed to have risen 0.3% from 2Q and 1.7% on year when adjusted for varied working days.  Net exports exerted a drag, and elements of domestic demand were not as buoyant as assumed.

But the IFO German business climate index increased 0.8 points to 109.0, beating expectations.  Both current conditions and expectations surpassed forecasts.

French manufacturing sentiment slid a point to 102 in November.

The CBI British distributive trades index fell 12 points to +7 in November, surprising investors who expected an increase.

South African GDP rebounded 0.7% last quarter, reversing half of the 2Q slide.

Japanese supermarket sales posted a 2.8% on-year rise in October, similar to the month before.

Lots of U.S. data on tap today:  revised GDP, consumer confidence, the Case-Shiller house price index and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.  Also weekly chain store sales.  Brazil’s central bank is holding a policy meeting today.

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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