Aussie Dollar Rose and Oil Price Fell

November 12, 2015

Australia’s currency strengthened 1.0% against its U.S. counterpart on strong labor market data.  Australia’s jobless rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 5.9%, and 58.6K jobs were created last month, four times greater than anticipated.

The U.S. dollar has otherwise climbed 0.3% against the euro and sterling, 0.2% versus the kiwi and loonie, and 0.1% relative to the yen, Swissie and yuan.

West Texas Intermediate oil is trading below $43 at $42.85 per barrel, an overnight erosion of 0.2%.  Comex gold edged 0.1% higher but remains below $1,100 at $1,086.92 per ounce.

Share prices fell 0.5% in China, 0.8% in Singapore and 0.2% in South Korea but rose 2.1% in Hong Kong, 0.5% in India and 0.1% in Australia and New Zealand.  Japan’s Nikkei closed unchanged.  European stocks are lower, with losses of 1.0% in Spain, 0.9% in Italy, 0.8% in Greece, 0.5% in Germany and Switzerland and 0.3% in Britain.

The ten-year British gilt yield fell two basis points.  The German bund is a basis point firmer, while the Japanese JGB yield is unchanged.

Japanese core private domestic machinery orders recovered 7.5% in September following a 5.7% plunge in August to post a disturbing 10% slide in the third quarter, which was a much worse outcome than predicted by officials three months ago.  They now forecast a 2.9% rebound in the final quarter of 2015.  In 3Q15, public sector orders fell 8.5%, while foreign orders went up 8.0%.  Total machinery orders dropped 4.0% quarter-on-quarter and were just 1.9% above their year-earlier level.

Japanese domestic corporate goods prices record a third consecutive monthly slide of 0.6% in October and were 3.8% lower than a year earlier.  In the year to October, export prices fell 6.7%, while import prices plunged 20.4%.

Japanese stock and bond transactions last week generated a JPY 774 billion net capital outflow, up from a JPY 58 billion outflow in the week to October 30.

Industrial production in Euroland fell 0.3% on month during September, reflecting outsized drops of 2.4% in Ireland, 1.9% in Greece and 1.2% in Germany.  Eurozone output has posted only one monthly rise since April, a 0.7% increase in July.  Output in September was 0.4% less than the 3Q average level and 1.7% higher than in September 2014.

German consumer prices were confirmed to have been unchanged in October but 0.3% higher than a year earlier.  CPI inflation was zero on balance over the past six reported months.

Chinese bank lending growth in October was much weaker than expected despite faster money growth.  513.6 billion yuan of bank loans was the smallest monthly total so far in 2015 and 51% smaller than September’s total.  On-year Chinese M2 money growth accelerated to 13.5%, highest so far this year, from 13.1%.  M1 advanced 14.0% on year, and M0 edged upward to 3.8%, a 7-month high.

New Zealand food prices fell 0.5% in the year to October.  New Zealand consumer sentiment jumped 6.8% in November on top of a 3.7% increase in October.

The Royal Institute of British Chartered Surveyors house price balance index printed higher at 49% last month following readings of 44% in September and 53% in August.

Monetary policy stances were left unchanged in South Korea and The Philippines.  South Korea’s 7-day repo rate has been at 1.5% since a 25-basis point cut in June.  There were also 25-bp reductions in March as well as August and September of 2014.  The Filipino overnight borrowing rate stays at 4.0%, its level since a 25-bp increase in September 2014.

In the year to October, Irish consumer prices slid 0.2% (0.3% harmonized), while Swedish and French consumer prices edged up 0.1.  The French current account swung to a EUR 0.5 billion surplus in September from a EUR 0.1 billion deficit in August. 

Finnish retail sales declined 1.7% between September 2014 and September 2015.  Brazilian retail sales plunged 6.2% in the same interval, while Dutch retail sales advanced 5.1%.  Hungarian industrial production grew 7.8%.

Evans, Lacker, Dudley, and Bullard  — four regional Federal Reserve presidents — are scheduled to speak publicly later today. 

Scheduled U.S. data releases today include weekly jobless insurance claims and the monthly Labor Department JOLTS index.  The monthly federal deficit is also getting reported.  Canadian house price figures are due, too.

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

Tags: , , ,


Comments are closed.