Archive for November 2015

Deeper Analysis

November in Figures

November 30, 2015

Gold and oil prices each dropped sharply November.  Share prices in Germany and Japan outperformed other stock markets shown below.  Sovereign debt yields rose in the United States and Canada, fell in Europe, and were steady on balance in Japan. 10-Yr Yield 11/30/15 10/30/15 Chg v End-Oct U.S. 2.21% 2.14% +7 Basis Points Germany 0.47% […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Month Ending with Usual Flurry of Data Reports

November 30, 2015

Overnight dollar movement ranges from declines of 0.9% against the kiwi, 0.6% versus the Aussie dollar, 0.2% relative to the loonie and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc to rises of 0.5% against sterling and 0.2% versus the yen and euro. The DJIA has dipped 0.2% so far.  The Ftse is off 0.1%, but the German […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Day Before Thanksgiving

November 25, 2015

The slew of U.S. economic indicators released early this week leaves a December rate hike highly probable. Second-quarter GDP growth got revised to 2.1% from 1.5% despite a slightly softer consumption figure than estimated before. New jobless insurance claims last week was at a very low 260K. The Case-Shiller house price report covering major metropolitan […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Unsettled Day

November 24, 2015

Turkey claims to have downed a Russian warplane. Investors now attach nearly a 3-in-4 probability to the Fed funds rate being raised in December, according to market indicators. The euro is trading in the mid-1.06s to the dollar, and the yen is hovering around 122.5. Stock prices are lower in Europe.  German, British and Italian […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

A Good Year for the Dollar… But Maybe Too Much So

November 23, 2015

It’s easy to be lulled into viewing the dollar as rising only moderately.  Eight months have passed since its 2015 high against the euro was touched, and common European currency and yen each show little net change since then against the dollar.  A comparison of dollar changes over the last twelve months presents a much […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Israel

November 23, 2015

The released statement following this month’s monetary policy meeting has a dovish tone, although Israel’s monetary policy interest rate of 0.15% was not cut further.  It had been reduced previously by 75 basis points a year in four consecutive years plus by a further 15 basis points in the February of this year.  The statement […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Opens Holiday-Abbreviated Week With a Bid Tone

November 23, 2015

Japan’s market was shut today for the Labor Thanksgiving holiday, and U.S. market leadership will be missing later in the week.  Not much data were reported overnight, but the release of U.S. existing home sales, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the FHFA house price index, and preliminary U.S. PMI findings compiled by Market Economics […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

November 20, 2015

Holiday Closures:  Japan for Labor Thanksgiving on Monday and the United States for Thanksgiving on Thursday (many workers will be off Friday, too). Central Bank Action:  Interest rate policy meetings in Israel, Brazil and Turkey.  October 30 BOJ Board minutes get published.  John Williams of the San Francisco Fed speaks publicly.  So do Weidmann of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Mixed Central Bank Signals Lifted the Dollar

November 20, 2015

Stanley Fisher, Vice Fed Chair, said some major central banks, meaning the Fed, could move away from a zero interest rate policy relatively soon, noting also that Fed officials want to avoid the element of surprise and that counterparts in in emerging markets are ready for an initial Fed move. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart indicated […] More

Central Bank Watch

South African Monetary Policy Tightened for Second Time in Four Months

November 19, 2015

The monetary policy committee of the South African Bank has raised its repo rate to 6.25% from 6.0%.  There was an earlier 25-basis point hike on July 23 and before that increases of 25 bps in July 2014 and 50 bps in January 2014.  The rate was at a 30-year low of 5.0% from July […] More

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