U.S.-Minus-Eurozone Purchasing Managers Differential Narrowed Further in September

October 5, 2015

The ISM-compiled U.S. non-manufacturing PMI reading fell 2.1 points last month to a 3-month low of 56.9.  Euroland’s services PMI dropped by a lesser 0.7 points to 53.7.  A spread between those two results of 3.2 points was the smallest in three months.  The manufacturing PMI spread reported last week favored the eurozone by a larger margin, and the the 1.4-point algebraic sum of the two differentials, seen in the September 2015 row of right-most column below,  was at a 19-month low.

In the U.S. non-manufacturing survey of purchasing managers, a 2.3-point improvement in jobs, was offset by declines of 3.7 points in production, 6.7 points in orders, and 2.4 points in prices, the last of which printed below 50 and thus indicates a decline in prices.

Among reporting eurozone members, a 1.3-point rise in the French index mitigated the net drag from declines of 4.6 points in Spain’s index, 1.3 points in the Italian index, 0.8 points in the German index and 0.3 points in Ireland’s services PMI.  All eurozone PMIs remained above 50, signaling an improvement everywhere in activity.

PMIs U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of
  Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 54.8 47.9 +8.1 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +13.3
March 54.5 46.4 +8.1 51.5 46.8 +4.7 +12.8
April 53.8 47.0 +6.8 50.0 46.7 +3.3 +10.1
May 54.0 47.2 +6.8 50.0 48.3 +1.7 +8.5
June 53.4 48.3 +5.1 52.5 48.8 +3.7 +8.8
July 55.9 49.8 +6.1 54.9 50.3 +4.6 +10.7
August 57.9 50.7 +7.2 56.3 51.4 +4.9 +12.1
Sept 54.5 52.2 +2.3 56.0 51.1 +4.9 +7.2
October 55.1 51.6 +3.5 56.6 51.3 +5.3 +8.8
November 54.1 51.2 +2.9 57.0 51.6 +5.4 +8.3
December 53.0 51.0 +2.0 56.5 52.7 +3.8 +5.8
Jan 2014 54.0 51.6 +2.4 51.3 54.0 -2.7 -0.3
February 52.5 52.6 -0.1 54.3 53.2 +1.1 +1.0
March 53.7 52.1 +1.6 54.4 53.0 +1.4 +3.0
April 55.3 53.1 +2.2 55.3 53.4 +1.9 +4.1
May 56.1 53.2 +2.9 55.6 52.2 +3.4 +6.3
June 56.3 52.8 +3.5 55.7 51.8 +3.9 +7.4
July 57.9 54.2 +3.7 56.4 51.8 +4.6 +8.3
August 58.6 53.1 +5.5 58.1 50.7 +7.4 +12.9
Sept 58.1 52.4 +5.7 56.1 50.3 +5.8 +11.5
October 56.9 52.1 +4.8 57.9 50.6 +7.3 +12.1
November 58.8 51.1 +7.7 57.6 50.1 +7.5 +15.2
December 56.5 51.6 +4.9 55.1 50.6 +4.5 +9.4
Jan 2015 56.7 52.7 +4.0 53.5 51.0 +2.5 +6.5
February 56.9 53.7 +3.2 52.9 51.0 +1.9 +5.1
March 56.5 54.2 +2.3 51.5 52.2 -0.7 +1.6
April 57.8 54.1 +3.7 51.5 52.0 -0.5 +3.2
May 55.7 53.8 +1.9 52.8 52.2 +0.6 +2.5
June 56.0 54.4 +1.6 53.5 52.5 +1.0 +2.6
July 60.3 54.0 +6.3 52.7 52.4 +0.3 +6.6
August

Sept

59.0

56.9

54.4

53.7

+4.6

+3.2

51.1

50.2

52.3

52.0

-1.2

-1.8

+3.4

+1.4

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