Central Bank Watch
Magyar Nemzeti Bank Reaffirms Appropriateness of Hungary’s Monetary Policy Stance
September 22, 2015
Hungary’s Monetary Council retained a 1.35% Base Rate and released a statement that Concluded “inflation is likely to be below the inflation target this year and next, and is expected to rise to levels around 3 per cent only in the second half of 2017.” Attributed unfavorable global financial developments to “Greek government debt problems,concerns […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Retains 7.5% Repo Rate
September 22, 2015
“The cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.” Thus concludes the statement following the latest Turkish central bank meeting where officials left their one-week repo rate at 7.5% along with a 10.75% overnight lending rate and a 7.25% overnight […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Ugly Day for Stocks
September 22, 2015
Equities in Europe have plunged 3.1% in France, 2.8% in Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland and 2.1% in Britain. U.S. futures point to a debacle here, too. VW shares continued to implode. Stocks in Asia had been more mixed, with Japan still closed for the second of three straight days in a bridge between Respect […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Mexico Interest Rate Kept at Record Low of 3.0%
September 21, 2015
From a pre-Great Recession high of 8.25%, Mexico’s central bank interest rate was cut seven times by 375 basis points in all between January 2009 and July 2009. Four more cuts of 50 basis points in March 2013, 25 bps in September 2013, 25 bps in October 2013 and 50 basis points in October 2014 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Greek Election, Japanese Holiday, and Mixed Markets
September 21, 2015
Syriza, the Leftest party of Greek Prime Minister Tsipras will command about 155 of 300 parliamentary seats with its coalition partner after Sunday’s election that drew a low voter turnout. This was the result the rest of Europe desired, but a potential for the Greek debt crisis to flame anew persists because promised fiscal actions […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
September 18, 2015
Central Banks: Interest rate policy meetings are scheduled next week in Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, the Czech Republic, The Philippines, Norway, and Mexico. Chair Yellen and Lockhart, Williams, and George will be speaking in public. So will ECB President Draghi and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz. Holiday Closure: Japanese Equinox Day on Wednesday in Japan. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Import Prices and the Dollar
September 18, 2015
U.S. officials since the Great Recession have generally avoided engaging in currency manipulation. Complaints were toned down about the yen and yuan being too weak. Switzerland was given a green pass when a cap on the franc was imposed for 3+ years. The dollar for the most part wasn’t a political football, and the dollar […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
The Fed Has Spoken, and Now Markets React
September 18, 2015
The ten-year Treasury in futures trading slid another 4 basis points overnight and is 11 bps below its level at the time of the FOMC announcement yesterday. Ten-year British gilts, German bunds and Japanese JGB yields fell overnight by 11, 8, and 2 basis points. The dollar is especially weak against commodity-sensitive currencies, falling 1.4% […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Review
September 17, 2015
The FOMC decided that the 0-0.25% federal funds target remains appropriate and did not change its policy stance in any other way. The last two scheduled opportunities in 2015 for interest rate liftoff are October 28 and December 16. Thirteen of the seventeen committee members believe liftoff at one of those meetings will probably be […] More
Deeper Analysis
FOMC Preview
September 17, 2015
It’s T minus one hour and counting to a possible U.S. interest rate liftoff. Suspense ahead of the 14:00 decision remains very high. Rhetoric from Fed officials indicates split opinion, so dissenting votes seem probable. Chair Yellen has been out of the public eye since shortly after her Humphrey Hawkins testimony in July. U.S. inflation […] More
