Archive for September 2015

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Romania

September 30, 2015

Romania’s monetary policy rate will remain at 1.75%.  Four 25-basis point cuts were undertaken this year by May 6 on top of 125 basis points of reduction last year.  CPI inflation was just 0.3% last month, well below target.  A released statement speaks of balancing the prospect of more disinflation in the near term with […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of Iceland Raised Reserve Requirement but Left Interest Rates Unchanged for Now

September 30, 2015

The reserve requirement ratio was doubled to 4% after the latest monetary policy meeting.  The seven-day collateralized lending rate stays at 6.25%, and the one-week term deposit rate is 5.5%, also unchanged.  Rates were increased earlier by 50 basis points in June (in a first hike since November 2012) and again in August.  Moreover, a […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Torrential Data and Continuing High Market Volatility

September 30, 2015

Considerable economic data were released on this final day of the third quarter. Markets await speeches from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed District President Dudley.  Share prices rebounded 2.1% in Australia, 1.9% in Hong Kong, 1.5% in India, 1.1% in Indonesia, 2.7% in Japan, 1.0% in South Korea and 0.8% in China. […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Defining Fed Policy and What to Expect from the Dollar

September 29, 2015

A succession of changes occurred starting in the early to mid-1990s in how U.S. monetary policy is communicated to the public.  What the Fed was doing and why became much more transparent.  Policy was extremely opaque a generation ago –no minutes, no forward guidance, no immediate FOMC statement explaining a change, no post-meeting press conferences, […] More

Central Bank Watch

A Front-Loaded 50-Basis Point Interest Rate Cut in India

September 29, 2015

The Reserve Bank of India’s repo and reserve repo rates were each reduced by 50 basis points to 6.75% and 5.75%.  The size of the cut was twice as much as expected and follows three 25-basis point reductions during the first half of calendar 2015.  A statement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan characterizes policy as […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Continuing Aversion to Risk in an Ultra-Low Global Inflationary Environment

September 29, 2015

Stock markets in the Pacific Rim fell overnight by 4.1% in Japan, 3.8% in Australia, 3.0% in Hong Kong, 2.0% in China and 1.7% in New Zealand.  In Europe prior to the U.S. open, there have been incremental losses of 1.1% in Greece and 0.4% in Switzerland and Britain but gains of 0.6% in Spain, […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Israel

September 28, 2015

Israel’s policy interest rate will remain at 0.10% next month, it’s level since a 15-basis point cut announced in late February.  The rate was cut from 3.25% at end-2010 to 0.25%  at end-2014.  Each of the intervening years saw the rate cut by 25 bps on three occasions. A statement of explanation released this past […] More

Central Bank Watch

Colombian Central Bank Interest Rate Raised by 25 Basis Points

September 28, 2015

The new benchmark interest rate level in Colombia, announced just before the past weekend, will be 4.75%.  This month’s rate hike was the first change in 13 months.  The interest rate had been lifted five straight meetings from April through August of 2014 to ensure that inflation settles back within the 2-4% target range.  Actual […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Market Unease at Start of Fresh Week

September 28, 2015

A fresh wave of risk aversion swept over European stock markets, where share prices are down so far by 2.2% in France, 2.3% in Greece, 1.8% in Italy, 1.5% in Germany but just 0.4% in Great Britain and Switzerland. Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 1.3%, and stocks dropped by 2.1% in Indonesia, 1.4% in Singapore and 1.0% […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

September 25, 2015

Quarter-End:  The coming week bridges the third and fourth quarters and also marks the end of the first half of Japan’s fiscal year. Holiday:  China’s National Holiday, commemorating the the 66th anniversary of the Communist Revolution begins on Thursday and runs for several days. Manufacturing PMIs:  will be reported for Austria, Australia, Japan, South Korea, […] More

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