New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Technology-Led Decline in Share Prices
July 22, 2015
Equities fell 1.6% in Australia, 1.2% in Japan and Hong Kong, 1.0% in Taiwan, 0.9% in South Korea, 0.4% in Singapore and 0.2% in China. India’s market, an exception in the Pacific Rim, rose 1.2%. Share prices have also fallen 0.5% in Switzerland, 0.4% in Germany, 0.3% in France and 0.1% in Britain. Commodities extended […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Why Might the Dollar Uptrend Be Stalled?
July 21, 2015
On paper, prospects for dollar appreciation continue to look very sound. Monetary policy cycles will be extremely disparate over the next two years between the United States on the one hand and the eurozone, Japan and emerging markets on the other. Gold’s relentless slide suggests considerable continuing confidence in a dollar uptrend, especially in light […] More
Central Bank Watch
A Fifth and Likely Final Consecutive Monthly Monetary Easing in Hungary
July 21, 2015
The monetary council at Magyar Nemzeti Bank engineered another 15-basis point cut in its base rate, matching reductions in March, April, May and June. The new 1.35% level is a record low and unlikely to be raised before late 2016. At the same time, officials as many analysts suspected changed their forward guidance to signal […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Another Quiet Mid-Summer Session
July 21, 2015
The dollar slipped 0.4% overnight against the euro and Swiss franc but is unchanged against the yen, Australian dollar and yuan. The U.S. currency lost 0.6% relative to the kiwi and 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie but is 0.1% firmer against sterling. Share prices climbed 1.1% in Hong Kong, 0.9% in Japan and 0.4% in New […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Greek Banks Reopen, Share Prices Higher in Europe, and Gold Lower
July 20, 2015
The U.S. dollar fell 0.8% against the kiwi overnight but shows small gains of 0.3% relative to sterling, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc and 0.1% against the yen, loonie and Aussie dollar. The euro and yuan are steady. Equities have risen 1.5% in Italy, 1.0% in Spain and Germany, 0.9% in France, 0.6% in Greece […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
July 17, 2015
Japanese Holiday: Markets in Japan will be closed Monday for Marine Day. Central Banks: Interest rate policy meetings are scheduled at centrals in New Zealand, South Africa, Hungary and Turkey. Minutes from a prior meeting will be released by the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia. Scheduled U.S. Data: New […] More
Deeper Analysis
Updated Comparison of U.S. Economic Performance Under Obama and Bush43
July 17, 2015
This note is an update of a series of earlier articles on Currency Thoughts that compared the U.S. economic performance under different presidential stewardships, including this prior article from January 2012. It’s seems pretty clear that U.S. voters next year will be presented with a stark choice on domestic economic policies. Now that both Obama’s […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lingering Doubts about the Greek Deal and China’s Economic Prognosis
July 17, 2015
Greek banks will reopen next Monday. A number of European parliaments, including the Germany Bundestag, are presumed likely to vote today on approving a third bailout, this time of EUR 86 billion. All eurozone members must agree on this for the deal to pass. Finland has already done so. Despite this progress, grave doubt continues […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Dollar Emerges Strong after Two Mistrusted Deals
July 16, 2015
The first of two agreements reached this week pitted the Greek people against the country’s creditors. It avoided the feared precedent of a member leaving the currency union but did so at enormous cost to the euro’s reputation. To Greece’s partners, the struggle ended with victory for the principle that rules governing common currency area […] More
Central Bank Watch
ECB Statement and Press Conference
July 16, 2015
ECB President Draghi’s introductory statement focuses on monetary policy for the whole monetary union, while the press conference was preoccupied with the Greek situation. Comments on the Statement: In an upbeat tone, the statement says the program of asset purchases totaling EUR 60 billion per month is going smoothly and will be sustained at least […] More
