Archive for April 2015

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Preview

April 29, 2015

The biggest market changes since the last FOMC meeting (see table below) are a euro recovery against the dollar and a 34% jump in oil prices.  U.S. economic data have been weaker than projected, depressed by dollar appreciation and another disruptive winter.  U.S. real GDP climbed just 1.2% at an annualized rate over the past […] More

Central Bank Watch

Swedish Riksbank Expands Quantitative Easing

April 29, 2015

A SEK 10 billion program of bond buying was introduced by Swedish monetary authorities in February, expanded by an additional 30 billion kronor in March, and now again raised by another SEK 40-50 billion, bringing the total size of the initiative to SEK 80-90 billion.  At this month’s meeting, moreover, the repo rate, which had […] More

Central Bank Watch

A Still-Divided Bank of Thailand Policy Committee Cuts its Interest Rate Again

April 29, 2015

A 25-basis point cut in March had been Thailand’s first interest rate change in a year.  The vote, however, had been 4-3 to approve that drop, so analysts were not expecting a follow-up stimulus this soon.  This time, a 5-2 majority approved cutting the interest rate to 1.5%, lowest since June 2010, from 1.75%, and […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

FOMC Day

April 29, 2015

Two central banks eased monetary policy earlier today.  The Swedish Riksbank expanded quantitative stimulus, kept a negative 0.25% repo rate, indicated that such could go lower, and warned that a variety of other measures may be taken to ensure that inflation recovers to target.  The repo rate is projected to be no higher than 0.8% […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

The Case Against Fed Tightening as Soon as June

April 28, 2015

Tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee statement is likely to plant a strong clue if an interest rate hike in June remains a possibility.  Being committed to a data-driven policy, officials will not be in a position to know definitively now whether tightening can begin at the following policy meeting on June 17, but tomorrow’s U.S. […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Several Themes Affecting Markets

April 28, 2015

Most European stock markets are lower with a notable exception of Greece.  The Greek debt negotiating team was changed, but Prime Minister Tsipras made remarks that failed to signal enhanced prospects for an agreement.  He implied that any deal involving more austerity may be subject to approval by a referendum of Greek voters, and he […] More

Central Bank Watch

Israeli Monetary Policy Rate Left Unchanged after Monthly Meeting

April 27, 2015

The Bank of Israel’s key interest rate was cut three times each in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, plus by 15 basis points to 0.10% on February 23rd.  A statement released after the April committee meeting makes familiar points.  On-year inflation of -1.0% remains well below zero.  Medium-term CPI expectations hover at a low 1.0%, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

An Important Week Starts Quietly

April 27, 2015

Very few economic indicators get released today.  Later in the week sees the release of preliminary estimates of U.S. and British first-quarter growth, each of which is likely to prove soft.  Investors await Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement, eager to learn how the continuing lull in U.S. activity might affect coming Fed policy.  Do they believe […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

April 24, 2015

Holidays:  Anzac Day: A holiday of remembrance for war dead in Australia and New Zealand falling on the April 25-26 weekend; New Zealand will be shut on April 27.  April 29: Showa Day in Japan, honoring the birthday of former Emperor Hirohito and marking the start of the Golden Week holidays.  May 1: May Day […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Difficult Talks with Greece as Time Begins to Run Out

April 24, 2015

The spotlight today is on a meeting of eurozone finance ministers, trying to secure a debt agreement with Greece.  The tentative deal back in February was contingent upon Greece undertaking reforms but the end of April.  Well here we are, with scant reforms, and Greek officials wanting aid first and then reforms to follow, but […] More

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