U.S. Manufacturing PMI Lower than Ezone PMI Last Month
April 1, 2015
The PMI spread below, which subtracts Markit Economics’ eurozone PMI from the ISM’s U.S. PMI, turned negative in March for the first time in 14 months.
U.S. manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace since January 2014 as attested by a 1.4-point decline in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5. The jobs index dropped 1.4 points to the 50 no-change threshold. Export order backlogs contracted more sharply with an index of 47.5 after 48.5 in March. Output expanded at a respectable pace that was similar to that in February, but new orders growth slowed to a reading of 51.8.
The eurozone PMI rose 1.2 points to 52.0. The German, French and Italian indices each improved more than a full point. The Dutch, Spanish, and Greek indices rose by 0.3 points on average, but the Austrian and Irish PMIs were 1.0 points below their February readings. The Greek, French and Austrian readings were below 50, thus signifying a contraction of manufacturing indices. The German, Italian, Irish, Spanish and Dutch indices exceeded the 50 threshold and ranged from 52.5 in The Netherland to 56.5 in Ireland, all of which implied faster growth than the United States experienced.
Exports account for much of the demand for manufactured goods. The accelerating depreciation of the euro from $1.380 in both March and April of last year to $1.083 last month on average is the market’s way of equalizing competitive advantage.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | 1.366 |
| March | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | 1.380 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | 1.380 |
| May | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | 1.374 |
| June | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | 1.360 |
| July | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | 1.354 |
| August | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 1.332 |
| September | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | 1.290 |
| October | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | 1.268 |
| November | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | 1.247 |
| December | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | 1.232 |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | 1.162 |
| February | 52.9 | 51.0 | +1.9 | 1.135 |
| March | 51.5 | 52.2 | -0.7 | 1.083 |
Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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