U.S. Jobs Friday

December 5, 2014

U.S. and Canadian November jobs figures get released at 08:30 EST (13:30 GMT).  Ahead of such, the dollar is mostly firmer.  Share prices rose overnight in Europe, commodities are softer, and 10-year German bund and Japanese JGB yields have edged lower.

The dollar is 0.7% higher against the yen and comfortably above the 120 barrier at 120.66.  The dollar also rose 0.7% against the loonie and shows gains of 0.3% versus the kiwi and 0.2% against the euro, Swissie and Aussie dollar.  Sterling is unchanged.

The Japanese Nikkei closed 0.2% higher.  Stocks advanced 0.7% in China and Hong Kong but lost 0.6% in Australia.  In Europe, share prices have climbed by 2.1% in Italy, 1.6% in Spain, 1.4% in France, 1.3% in Germany and 0.6% in Britain.

Among sovereign debt yields, the 10-year German bund yield is two basis points softer, and the JGB has slid by a basis point.  Gilts firmed a basis point.

WTI oil has slipped 0.7% to $66.33 per barrel.  Comex gold is down 0.3% at $1,204.00 per troy ounce.

Thursday News:

  • The ECB revised projected growth and inflation downward, did not change policy, but promised to assess early next year the impact of steps already taken and the recent decline in oil prices.
  • The Bank of England’s policy stance was not changed, either.
  • Euroland’s retail purchasing managers index rose 1.9 points to a 5-month high in November.
  • Canada’s IVEY-PMI index rebounded 5.7 points to 56.9 in November.
  • U.S. jobless insurance claims fell 17K to 297K last week, but the 4-week average increased to 299K.
  • South Korean GDP grew 0.9% on quarter and 3.2% on year during 3Q14.
  • Swiss industrial output posted much slower growth in industrial production last quarter of 0.5%.
  • Australian retail sales expanded 0.4% in October after a 1.3% spike in September.
  • The German construction PMI advanced two full points to a 9-month high of 53.5 in November.
  • The non-oil PMIs of Egypt (50.7), Saudi Arabia (57.6) and the U.A.E. (58.3) fell to 4-, 6- and 4-month lows in November.

Today’s Highlights:

Euroland real GDP growth last quarter was confirmed at 0.2% versus 2Q and 0.8% on year.  The impetus for a doubling from growth of 0.1% in the second quarter came from a 0.5% advance in personal consumption.  Private investment fell 0.3% on quarter, and net exports exerted a 0.2 percentage point drag on the third-quarter growth rate.  Government spending went up 0.3% on quarter and 1.1% on year.

German industrial orders advanced 2.5% in October on top of a 1.1% rise in September.  Orders were 2.5% greater than a year ago.  Domestic orders for capital goods jumped 8.6% in the latest month, more than reversing a 3.1% decline in September.  Bundesbank President Weidmann again voiced opposition to quantitative easing in public remarks, claiming such would violate the intention of the treaties creating the monetary union.  The Bundesbank meanwhile cut projected growth next year in half to 1.0% and projected that GDP would expand just 1.6% even in 2016.

Three Japanese economic indicators were reported Friday.

  • International reserves rose $3.154 billion in November following a rise of $1.52 billion in October but a plunge of $13.6 billion in September.
  • The customs clearance trade deficit in the first twenty days of November, JPY 978 billion, was 9.4% narrower than a year earlier, as export (+7.3%) grew twice as fast as imports.
  • Japan’s index of leading economic indicators fell by 1.6 points to 104.0 in October, which was even lower than August’s reading of 104.4.  The index of coincident economic indicators improved 0.6 points to 110.2, but government officials maintained that such may be signaling a possible turning point.

Finnish GDP rose 0.2% on quarter, half what had been forecast, and just 0.1% on year in the third quarter.

Czech retail sales climbed 1.1% on month and 7.5% on year in October.  Hungarian industrial production fell on month and slowed over fourfold to a 12-month rise of 1.7% in October. 

In the year to October, Spanish industrial production rose by 0.6%, Danish industrial output fell 1.2%.  Norwegian and Irish industrial output soared by 10.7% and 38.2%, respectively.  Swedish industrial output climbed 1.6% on year after a 4.3% 12-month drop posted in September.

Icelandic GDP in 3Q14 was 0.2% smaller than a year earlier.  A rise had been forecast.

The Bank of England’s latest quarterly survey of expected inflation produced lower readings of 2.5% over the coming year and a 5-year pace of 3.0%.

The Filipino 12-month CPI inflation rate slowed to 3.7% in November from 4.3% the month before.  Consumer prices in Taiwan were 0.9% higher than a year ago.

U.S. consumer credit and trade figures get released today as well as the aforementioned labor force statistics.

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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