Gap Widened Sharply in November Between U.S. and Euroland Economic Performances

December 3, 2014

The differential between the sum of the U.S.-minus-Ezone manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing manager indices increased 3.6 points last month to a 3-year high of 16.8 points.  The two spreads were similar in size, indicating a roughly equal U.S. advantage of the euro area in both manufacturing and services.

The U.S. non-manufacturing PMI rose 2.2 points to 59.3, a 3-month high.  Sales jumped 4.4 points, orders went up 2.3 points but prices also posted a sharply faster pace of increase, rising 2.3 points to 54.4.  The jobs index retreated 2.9 points to a still-robust 56.7.

Euroland’s 51.1 reading in the services PMI was a full point lower in November than October’s result and at a 16-month low.  Germany, France, Spain and Ireland posted multi-month lows, while Italy’s 4-month high of 51.2 indicated a weak pace of positive growth.  Euroland’s composite manufacturing and services PMI was also 51.1, a 17-month low.

PMIs U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of
  Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 54.8 47.9 +8.1 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +13.3
March 54.5 46.4 +8.1 51.5 46.8 +4.7 +12.8
April 53.8 47.0 +6.8 50.0 46.7 +3.3 +10.1
May 54.0 47.2 +6.8 50.0 48.3 +1.7 +8.5
June 53.4 48.3 +5.1 52.5 48.8 +3.7 +8.8
July 55.9 49.8 +6.1 54.9 50.3 +4.6 +10.7
August 57.9 50.7 +7.2 56.3 51.4 +4.9 +12.1
Sept 54.5 52.2 +2.3 56.0 51.1 +4.9 +7.2
October 55.1 51.6 +3.5 56.6 51.3 +5.3 +8.8
November 54.1 51.2 +2.9 57.0 51.6 +5.4 +8.3
December 53.0 51.0 +2.0 56.5 52.7 +3.8 +5.8
Jan 2014 54.0 51.6 +2.4 51.3 54.0 -2.7 -0.3
February 51.6 52.6 -1.0 53.2 53.2 0.0 -1.0
March 53.1 52.1 +1.0 53.7 53.0 +0.7 +1.6
April 55.2 53.1 +2.1 54.9 53.4 +1.5 +3.6
May 56.3 53.2 +3.1 55.4 52.2 +3.2 +6.3
June 56.0 52.8 +3.2 55.3 51.8 +3.5 +6.7
July 58.7 54.2 +4.5 57.1 51.8 +5.3 +9.8
August 59.6 53.1 +6.5 59.0 50.7 +8.3 +14.8
Sept 58.6 52.4 +6.2 56.6 50.3 +6.3 +12.5
October 57.1 52.1 +5.0 59.0 50.6 +8.4 +13.2
November 59.3 51.1 +8.2 58.7 50.1 +8.6 +16.8

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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