Archive for September 2014

Deeper Analysis

September and 3Q in Figures

September 30, 2014

The dollar rose broadly and commodities fell in both September and the third quarter.  Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose in September but fell in the summer quarter.  Three-month euro deposit rates fell sharply in July-August but little further in September.  Other short-term interest rates held generally steady in the quarter. 10-Yr Yield 09/30/14 Chg from […] More

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Romania

September 30, 2014

Analysts were not surprised to learn of another 25-basis point cut in Romania’s monetary policy rate to a further record low of 3.0%, effective October 1.  This was the fourth reduction of 2014, all by 25 basis points.  The rate earlier had been cut from a pre-Great Recession peak of 10.25% to 8.0% by end-2009, […] More

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of India

September 30, 2014

India’s key 8.0% lending rate, a.k.a. the repo, and 7.0% borrowing rate have been at those levels since a policy meeting late last January hiked each by 25 basis points.  For a fourth time, a subsequent meeting has not changed either of those rates nor the 4.0% cash reserve ratio.  The benchmark interest rates had […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Hong Kong Upheaval and Quarter-End Deluge of Data

September 30, 2014

The euro touched a new low of $1.2571 overnight on this final day of the third quarter, down from $1.3693 at midyear.  Overnight net rises in the dollar amount to 0.7% against the euro and Swiss franc, 0.3% versus the yen and sterling, 0.2% relative to the loonie and 0.1% against the Australian and New […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Weak European Data and Unrest in Hong Kong

September 29, 2014

The dollar hit new highs for the move against the kiwi of USD 0.7708, Australian dollar of USD 0.8664, Swiss franc of 0.9534, Canadian dollar of 1.1180, yen of 109.76, and euro of USD 1.2664.  On balance, the dollar has risen 1.3% against the kiwi, 0.4% versus the Aussie dollar, 0.2% relative to the yuan […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

September 26, 2014

Tuesday marks the end of September, the third quarter, and Japan’s fiscal half.  China will be closed after Tuesday and for the remainder of the week to observe its National Holiday.  German markets are shut Friday, October 3 for Unity Day, marking the the commemoration of the 24th anniversary of the reunification of former West […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. GDP Getting Better All the Time?

September 26, 2014

The third estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter was 4.6%, up from 4.0% reported initially and 4.2% in the first revision.  There were upward revisions to non-residential and residential investment, government expenditures, exports and imports.  Inventory building lifted growth by 1.42 percentage points (ppts), up from 1.39 ppts estimated a month ago.  […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Market Catches Breath After Volatile Thursday

September 26, 2014

Overnight dollar movements amount to no net change against the euro, Swissie, sterling and kiwi, a gain of 0.3% versus the yen and 0.1% against the yuan and a dip of 0.1% relative to the Canadian and Australian dollars. Share prices in Europe rebounded 0.7% in France and Italy and 0.5% in Spain.  Stocks are […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Bolder Official Efforts to Influence Currency Movements

September 25, 2014

Officials outside the United States had for some time been frustrated by the weakness of the dollar in spite of superior U.S. fundamental economic comparisons of real growth, labor market conditions, and interest rates.  Now that the Federal Reserve’s third round of quantitative easing is wrapping up and speculation is heating up about an initial […] More

Central Bank Watch

Czech National Bank Keeps Existing Policy Stance as Expected

September 25, 2014

There are two elements to Czech monetary policy. A virtual zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), with the two-week repo rate pinned at 0.05%. A one-side exchange rate commitment, enforceable by intervention when necessary, that prevents the koruna from strengthening beyond 27 per euro. The 0.05% repo rate level has existed since a 20-basis point cut […] More

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