Archive for March 2014

Deeper Analysis

March and the First Quarter in Figures

March 31, 2014

Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose slightly in most of our survey during March but still posted significant declines in the quarter.  There was again almost no movement at the short end.  Oil and gold prices traced directionally opposite moves against one another in both March and 1Q.The dollar fell over 3% in March against the […] More

Deeper Analysis

Some Facts about Recent Euro Area Inflation

March 31, 2014

The twelve-month rate of total consumer price inflation fell to 0.5% in March 2014 from 1.7% in March 2013 and 2.7% in March 2012.  It would hit zero as soon as August or September if that pace of decline were sustained in linear fashion. Disinflation during the past year had broadly based sources.  39.4% of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Last Day of the First Quarter

March 31, 2014

The dollar advanced 0.4% against the yen and 0.2% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, but it is 0.3% softer versus the euro and Swiss franc and off 0.1% relative to sterling.  The loonie and yuan are steady.  The boost to risk aversion from the Ukraine situation seems to be fading, but rising tensions […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

March 28, 2014

The upcoming week includes the cusp between the first and second calendar quarters.  European clocks move up an hour on March 30, restoring the normal 5-hour gap between New York and London and 6-hour difference between Paris and New York. A slew of manufacturing, service-sector, and composite purchasing manager surveys will be released, as well […] More

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Romania Confirms Paused Policy

March 28, 2014

Romania’s monetary policy rate had been reduced by a total of 175 basis points since mid-2013 including a cut of 25 bps in February when officials hinted that easing might then be paused.  This indeed is the case.  After this month’s meeting, officials retained the record low 3.5% interest rate and did not change reserve […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Euroland Sentiment Indices Unexpectedly Buoyant

March 28, 2014

The dollar has risen 0.2% against the yen and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and Australian dollar but also shows losses of 0.1% against hte kiwi, loonie and sterling.  The yuan and euro are unchanged against the dollar. Share prices in the Pacific Rim climbed 1.1% in Hong Kong, 1.0% in Indonesia, 0.6% in India, […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

A Dull Quarter in Foreign Exchange

March 27, 2014

Many interesting things developed in the first quarter of 2014.  A changing of the guard at the helm of the Federal Reserve for the first time in eight years was accompanied by new forward guidance and the hint of a sooner first interest rate hike than markets were assuming.  Unusual weather  patterns won over new […] More

Central Bank Watch

South African Reserve Bank

March 27, 2014

The South African Reserve Bank embarked on a tightening interest rate cycle in January, raising its repo rate to 5.5% from a 42-year low of 5.0% in place since July 2012.  Although today’s meeting failed to increase the repo rate further, officials said that more increases would follow but that the tightening path will not […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Hikes its Reserve Requirement Ratio

March 27, 2014

Although the Filipino overnight lending and borrowing rates were left at 5.5% and 3.5% as expected, the reserve ratio was tightened to 19% from 18%.  Interest rates were cut four times, each by 25 basis points, during 2012 but not subsequently, and this was the first reserve ratio change since a cut 25 months ago.  […] More

Central Bank Watch

Czech National Bank

March 27, 2014

The two-week Czech repo rate was last cut in November 2012.  That reduction was 20 basis points in size and left the Czech Republic with a virtual zero interest rate policy (the rate has been at 0.05% ever since).  To prevent tighter monetary conditions caused by deflation, an additional exchange rate monetary tool was introduced […] More

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