U.S.-Euroland Manufacturing PMI Spread Shrinks to Four-Month Low

January 2, 2014

Whereas the Ezone PMI rose in December for a third straight time and by another 1.1 points to a reading of 52.7, the ISM reported that the U.S. purchasing managers index had dropped on month for the first time since May, albeit by a mere 0.3 points to a still-solid expansion pace of 57.0.  The 4.3-point differential between the two data series was the lowest since a similar spread in August.

In the U.S. survey, new business climbed 0.6 points to 64.2, and the sub-index for jobs was 0.4 points better at 56.9.  However, production grew somewhat more slowly than in November, although decently enough since that sub-index remained above 60.

Among members of Euroland, the PMI indices went up 1.6 points in Germany, 1.9 points in Italy and 2.2 points in Spain but fell 1.4 points to 47.0 in France.  Greece’s 49.6 reading was the only other to be still below 50, implying contraction.  It would appear that France has seized the role of “sick man of Europe” previously played by the likes of Greece and Italy.

Mfg PMIs U.S. Euroland Spread EUR/USD
Jan 2012 54.1 48.8 +5.3 1.290
February 51.9 49.0 +2.9 1.323
March 53.3 47.7 +5.6 1.320
April 54.1 45.9 +8.2 1.315
May 52.5 45.1 +7.4 1.280
June 50.2 45.1 +5.1 1.254
July 50.5 44.0 +6.5 1.230
August 50.7 45.1 +5.6 1.255
September 51.6 46.1 +5.5 1.286
October 51.7 45.4 +6.3 1.297
November 49.9 46.2 +3.7 1.283
December 50.2 46.1 +4.1 1.313
Jan 2013 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.330
February 54.2 47.9 +6.3 1.334
March 51.3 46.8 +4.5 1.295
April 50.7 46.7 +4.0 1.301
May 49.0 48.3 +0.7 1.299
June 50.9 48.8 +2.1 1.319
July 55.4 50.3 +5.1 1.309
August 55.7 51.4 +4.3 1.331
September 56.2 51.1 +5.1 1.335
October 56.4 51.3 +5.1 1.364
November 57.3 51.6 +5.7 1.349
December 57.0 52.7 +4.3 1.370

Copyright 2014, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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