PMIs Highlight Lessening U.S. Advantage against Europe

December 4, 2013

The U.S.-minus-Euroland service-sector purchasing manager index differential was 2.7 points last month, down from 3.8 points in October and 7.9 points in August.  The sum of the non-manufacturing and manufacturing spreads, seen in the rightmost column below fell by 0.5 points to 8.4 points in November and was 3.8 points lower than in August. 

The U.S. services index, 53.9, was 1.5 points less than in October and 4.7 points below August’s 2013 peak.  Sales, jobs and prices posted October-to-November declines of 4.2, 3.7 and 3.9 points.  But being above 50, all of the categories showed continuing positive growth last month.  All that’s happening is a deceleration of the recovery.

Euroland’s services PMI slipped by 0.4 points to 51.2, a three-month low.  The German and Spanish services PMI readings went up by 2.8 and 1.9 points, whereas the Italian, Irish and French indices dropped by 3.3, 3.0 and 2.9 points, thus underscoring the uneven nature of Europe’s fragile post-recession performance.

PMIs U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of
  Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 56.0 47.9 +8.1 54.2 47.9 +6.3 +14.4
March 54.4 46.4 +8.0 51.3 46.8 +4.5 +12.5
April 53.1 47.0 +6.1 50.7 46.7 +4.0 +10.1
May 53.7 47.2 +6.5 49.0 48.3 +0.7 +7.2
June 52.8 48.3 +4.5 50.9 48.8 +2.1 +6.6
July 56.0 49.8 +6.2 55.4 50.3 +5.1 +11.2
August 58.6 50.7 +7.9 55.7 51.4 +4.3 +12.2
Sept 54.4 52.2 +2.2 56.2 51.1 +5.1 +7.3
October 55.4 51.6 +3.8 56.4 51.3 +5.1 +8.9
November 53.9 51.2 +2.7 57.3 51.6 +5.7 +8.4

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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