Steady U.S. Advantage vs Ezone in Manufacturing
November 4, 2013
The U.S. commanded a 5.1-point manufacturing purchasing managers index premium over the euro area in October for the third time in the past four months. Each index was above 50 in all four months, which signifies trends of expansion, but the pace is significantly fast in the United States. The composition of the U.S. PMI survey was not as stellar as the overall index suggested, however. Improvement in October was led by exports and inventories. The employment sub-index was 2.2 points lower than in September, and production fell back 1.6 points to a still-solid reading of 60.8. Overall orders, including domestic as well as exports, only ticked up by a tenth of a point.
The Irish, Austrian, and German PMI readings posted advances of 2.2, 1.6 and 0.6 points to reach their best respective levels in 30, 28, and 2 months. Spain’s 50.9 PMI was above 50 for the third straight time. Italy’s was above 50 for a fourth consecutive month but at a 3-month low. France’s 49.1 reading was at a 4-month low and embodied shrinkage in production, jobs and new orders. The Greek score of 47.3 was at a 3-month low. The Dutch reading of 54.4 was 1.4 points below September’s highest peak in 29 months. Despite this mixed bag of results and overall slow rate of recovery, manufacturing in the euro area as a whole is the most vibrant such has been in around 2-1/2 years.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2012 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | 1.290 |
| February | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | 1.323 |
| March | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | 1.320 |
| April | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | 1.315 |
| May | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | 1.280 |
| June | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | 1.254 |
| July | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | 1.230 |
| August | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | 1.255 |
| September | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | 1.286 |
| October | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | 1.297 |
| November | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | 1.283 |
| December | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | 1.313 |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 54.2 | 47.9 | +6.3 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.3 | 46.8 | +4.5 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.7 | 46.7 | +4.0 | 1.301 |
| May | 49.0 | 48.3 | +0.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 50.9 | 48.8 | +2.1 | 1.319 |
| July | 55.4 | 50.3 | +5.1 | 1.309 |
| August | 55.7 | 51.4 | +4.3 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.2 | 51.1 | +5.1 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.4 | 51.3 | +5.1 | 1.364 |
Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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