Archive for November 2013

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Gratitude Thursday and the Day After

November 29, 2013

There have been a number of data releases during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.  Without U.S. market leadership, the dollar has not moved very much.  Equities are higher than on Wednesday.  The 10-year Treasury bond yield is a few basis points higher at 7.75%. In the euro area, Money and credit growth slowed.  M3 climbed just 1.4% between […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Rundown

November 27, 2013

From Monday’s close to 14:30 GMT on Wednesday, the dollar advanced against commodity-sensitive currencies like the Aussie dollar (0.9%), kiwi (0.8%) and loonie (0.3%) but fell 0.9% versus sterling, 0.7% relative to the Swiss franc and 0.6% against the euro.  The dollar is 0.3% firmer against the yen and unchanged relative to the yuan. Sovereign […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Regional Provocation by China’s Government

November 25, 2013

Thanksgiving week began with a light schedule of second-tier economic data releases. The main development is Beijing’s unilateral designation of an “air defense identification zone” over the East China Sea including the islands whose sovereignty China and Japan dispute.  Planes entering such space must identify themselves.  Japanese political leaders of course protested this action, and […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

November 22, 2013

The continuity of trading next week will be dampened by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.  The day after Thanksgiving traditionally is the busiest shopping day of the year.  2013 has a fairly short U.S. holiday shopping interval. Central bank interest rate policy meetings are scheduled in Thailand, Brazil, Hungary and Israel.  Minutes arrive from […] More

Deeper Analysis

Market Prices Now and 50 Years Ago

November 22, 2013

The table below compares some current vital market signs to their levels on November 22, 1963.  The dollar over this period fell at an annualized rate of 6.9% per annum against gold, 2.5% per year against the yen, 2.1% per year against the Swiss franc, and 2.0% per year against the mark-translation value of the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Aussie and New Zealand Dollars Weaken while Euro and Swissie Strengthen

November 22, 2013

The U.S. dollar has risen 0.7% and 0.6% against the Oz and kiwi but is 0.3% softer relative to the euro and Swiss franc.  The dollar also climbed 0.3% relative to the loonie and is unchanged vis-a-vis the yen, yuan and sterling. Share prices rose 0.9% in Australia, 0.6% in South Korea, 0.5% in Hong […] More

Central Bank Watch

South African Reserve Bank

November 21, 2013

For an eighth straight time, a meeting of South Africa’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep its repo rate at 5.0%.  Officials are between the rocks of inflation precariously near the target’s upper limit and the potential for more rand depreciation because of Fed tapering that will start either sooner or later and the hard […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Ahead of the Thanksgiving 2013 Break

November 21, 2013

Private and public analysts have lately expressed more optimism about the global economic outlook, but the reality is still fraught with plenty of downside risk.  The fourth Friday of November arrives this year on the 28th, which is its latest possible date for Thanksgiving and associated with the shortest possible U.S. holiday shopping season.  Beyond […] More

Central Bank Watch

Review of Bank of Japan Meeting: Policy Left Unchanged

November 21, 2013

The Bank of Japan statement after this month’s 5 hour and 9 minutes-long two-day meeting is almost an identical replica of the October 4 statement.  The only change of significance was an upgrade in the view of overseas economies from “on the whole gradually heading toward a pick-up” expressed a month ago to new language […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Attention to Central Banks and PMI Data

November 21, 2013

The Bank of Japan did not change monetary policy nor its economic assessment but did upgrade its view of overseas economic conditions.  Governor Kuroda talked confidently about economic trends and the achievements so far of quantitative and qualitative monetary stimulus. Chatter continues after FOMC minutes proved a bit more hawkish than expected.  Reserve Bank of […] More

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