Modest Rise in Dollar

October 21, 2013

The dollar has firmed by 0.3% against the kiwi and yen, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc, and 0.1% versus the euro.  The greenback is unchanged against the Aussie dollar and sterling and has dipped 0.1% versus the Chinese yuan.

Share prices rose 1.9% in China, 0.9% in Japan and New Zealand, 0.7% in Indonesia, 0.6% in Australia, and 0.4% in Hong Kong.  Equities slipped 0.3% in Taiwan.  In Europe, stocks are down 0.7% in Spain, 0.4% in Italy, 0.3% in France, and 0.1% in Germany but up so far by 0.2% in Britain.

Ten-year German bund, British gilt and Japanese JGB yields have edged a basis point higher.

The price of oil dropped 0.8% to $100.00 per barrel.  Gold ticked 0.1% higher to $1315.40 per ounce.

Japan recorded a customs trade deficit in September of JPY 1.091 trillion seasonally adjusted (versus JPY 821 billion in August).  The unadjusted JPY 932 billion gap was a bit greater than forecast and compared to JPY 963 billion in August and JPY 568 billion in September 2012.  Imports from China soared 30.4% on year.

Japan’s all-industry index climbed 0.3% on month and 0.9% on year in August.  This supply-side monthly proxy for GDP was 0.4% higher in July-August than its 2Q average level.

Japanese supermarket sales posted a 0.4% on-year advance in September compared to a 0.1% uptick in the year to August.

The Bank of Japan quarterly meeting of branch managers found all nine regions of the economy to have improved.  Governor Kuroda express optimism that the 2% inflation target will be secured and pledged to maintain aggressive monetary stimulus until it is.

The revised Japanese index of leading economic indicators for August was bumped up to 106.8 from a reading of 106.5 reported initially.  This was still less than July’s 107.9 or June’s 107.3 score.  The coincident index was characterized as “improving” despite a 0.1 point downtick from July to 107.6.

CPI inflation in Hong Kong unexpectedly edged up 0.1 percentage point to 4.6%.

Revised Euroland ratios of debt/GDP and fiscal deficit/GDP were announced.  Debt in 2012 stood at 90.6%, up from 87.3% in 2011, 85.4% in 2010, and 80.0% in 2009.  The Ezone-17 had a deficit of 3.7% of GDP, down from 4.2% in 2011, 6.2% in 2010 and 6.4% in 2009.  Troubled Greece recorded a debt ratio in 2012 of 156.9% and a deficit ratio of 9.0%.  The Spanish deficit was 10.6% of GDP, while Germany had a tiny surplus of 0.1% of GDP last year.

Britain’s Rightmove house price index recorded increases in October of 2.8% on month and 3.8% on year.  The 12-month increase fell from 4.5% in September.

German producer prices rose 0.3% in September but recorded a 0.5% twelve-month rate of decline, same as in August.  A 0.8% monthly jump in energy accounted for all of the PPI’s advance.  Non-energy producer prices dipped 0.1% on year, their first 12-month drop since February 2010.

Swiss M3 money growth of 9.7% on year was down from 10.5% in the year to August. 

Italian industrial orders were 4.8% weaker than a year before in August.  Industrial sales recorded a 6.8% drop from August 2012.

U.S. existing home sales, wholesale inventories, and index of leading economic indicators are scheduled to be released today.  Tomorrow sees the belated U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department.  Canadian wholesale turnover is due today.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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