Bank of Japan Tankan Survey
April 1, 2013
The diffusion indices in the table below represent the number of surveyed corporations that considered economic conditions favorable minus the number considering such unfavorable. Negative readings indicate a balance of pessimism, and positive readings show net optimism. The column labeled Bm comprises big manufacturers. Bnm represents big non-manufacturers. Sm are the small manufacturers, and the rightmost “all” column is the diffusion index for all 10,698 firms that participated in the March quarterly survey.
Just prior to this month’s release, street economists were projecting substantially improved diffusion readings compared to predicted March indications given by participants in the December survey three months ago. The latter are represented by the row labeled Mar 2013f. Last week, analysts were predicting readings of -1 for big manufacturers and +11 for big non-manufacturers. The actual readings in the March survey are given in the next row labeled Mar 2013a, and the predicted June 2013 readings are in the final row, which is labeled June 2013f. While there is less pessimism now than in December for the most part, the degree of improvement is quite moderate. More improvement is expected by mid-2013, reflecting the incoming Abe government’s push for both fiscal and monetary stimulus. Even by June, however, Tankan survey respondents expect the overall index for everyone to be lower than zero. This persistent pessimism could reflect either doubts that all the stimulus that’s being promised will be delivered or doubts that such actions will be effective or concerns about global demand and Sino-Japanese poor relations.
An unexpectedly bearish element of the latest survey is that large businesses expect a 2.0% decline in investment spending in Japan’s fiscal 2014, which begins today. Small firms anticipate an even larger contraction of their capital spending. All large firms collectively predict a 5.9% rise in corporate earnings but only a 1.0% increase in sales.
| Bm | Bnm | Sm | Snm | All | |
| Dec 1998 | -49 | -39 | -56 | -43 | |
| Dec 1999 | -17 | -19 | -32 | -28 | |
| Dec 2000 | 10 | -10 | -16 | -23 | |
| Dec 2001 | -38 | -22 | -49 | -39 | -40 |
| Dec 2002 | -9 | -16 | -33 | -36 | -28 |
| Dec 2003 | 11 | -9 | -13 | -28 | -15 |
| Dec 2004 | 22 | 11 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Dec 2005 | 21 | 17 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| Dec 2006 | 25 | 22 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| Dec 2007 | 19 | 16 | 2 | -12 | 2 |
| Mar 2008 | 11 | 12 | -6 | -15 | -4 |
| Jun 2008 | 5 | 10 | -10 | -20 | -7 |
| Sep 2008 | -3 | 1 | -17 | -24 | -14 |
| Dec 2008 | -24 | -9 | -29 | -29 | -24 |
| Mar 2009 | -58 | -31 | -57 | -42 | -46 |
| Jun 2009 | -48 | -29 | -57 | -44 | -45 |
| Sep 2009 | -33 | -24 | -52 | -39 | -38 |
| Dec 2009 | -25 | -21 | -41 | -34 | -31 |
| Mar 2010 | -14 | -14 | -30 | -31 | -24 |
| Jun 2010 | 1 | -5 | -18 | -26 | -15 |
| Sep 2010 | 8 | 2 | -14 | -21 | -10 |
| Dec 2010 | 5 | 1 | -12 | -22 | -11 |
| Mar 2011 | 6 | 3 | -10 | -19 | -9 |
| Jun 2011 | -9 | -5 | -21 | -26 | -18 |
| Sep 2011 | 2 | 1 | -11 | -19 | -9 |
| Dec 2011 | -4 | 4 | -8 | -14 | -7 |
| Mar 2012 | -4 | 5 | -10 | -11 | -6 |
| Jun 2012 | -1 | 8 | -12 | -9 | -4 |
| Sep 2012 | -3 | 8 | -14 | -9 | -6 |
| Dec 2012 | -12 | 4 | -18 | -11 | -9 |
| Mar 2013f | -10 | 3 | -26 | -19 | -15 |
| Mar 2013a | -8 | 6 | -19 | -8 | -8 |
| Jun 2013f | -1 | 9 | -14 | -8 | -5 |
Copyright 2012, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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